Why did Mao won last time.

People were tired of UML, Congress, King and also were tired of Mao ongoing war.

They wanted to bring the fighters to power so that they could test the new the party and avoid,uml, king, and congress.

More than that people wanted to bring the fighters to power so that they have no one to wage war against.

Why did Mao lost this time

The biggest problem i thik is that the original Mao voters, the poors (sarvahaara) as they like to call it refused to vote again because their life was not changed at all while they saw the leaders roaming in chopper/pajero and living in mansons.

Mao was under impression that many of their former voters were their loyal voters, they were just Communist Sympathizers who happened to vote for Mao back then and now they have switched back to other communist party.

Mao was under impression that Janajaati agenda would get them the vote needed for 2/3rd win. Wrong again. The result implies that Janajaati do not care about Janajaati agenda. Many janajaati winning from uml, congress, and even RPP.

May be the split of the party had little to do with it especially in the areas where big shots were candidates. Baidhe may have directed his people to vote the candidate who has more possibility to defeat the Mao candidate.

Conclusion

It looks like in Nepal, there are fixed amount of Congress voters, these do not vote outside of their party but there is a huge float of communist swing voters. Out of 60% - 65% communists in nepal may be 40% are loyal voters but the remaining 25% are swing voters. These swing voters keep on looking for better options. These voters make the difference. These voters vote anywhere from Congress to the right to RPP to the left and beyond.

We should refrain calling nepal as Bheda as they seem to make a logica decision. It was logical for them to try Mao last time and it is logical for them to not vote this time.

This defeat is definitely a huge blow to Prachanda and his ego. Now they have no choice to go back and say sorry to Baidhe as he seems to be the winner among them two right now. Prachanda and his son will go down like Gyanendra/paras and Girija/Sujata combo.

Partly agree that these bhendas (not sure why OP wants others not to use the term. I mean, it's a term used all over the world in a meaningful way) won because people wanted a change. But there's absolutely no doubt that the last election was severely rigged. These bhendas used arms to ensure people voted in their favor, especially outside the valley. 

Anyway, the eagerness that most Nepalese showed to vote really and the outcomes clearly prove that people had finally realized what their proper agendas truly are. People had it enough. Everybody seemed psyched to cast their votes and the turnout (70%) speaks a volume about how people had enough of nonsensical stoppages. When you consider the rate at which India and China have made progresses over the past 15 years, it's unfathomable and unacceptable that we've actually regressed! 

A bunch of hobos brainwashing a ton of innocent people (mostly kids) was never going to turnout well. 

In any case, the outcome is hardly surprising. People have voiced their opinion and everybody except for them are happy with the results (so far). 

Now if only a new government could be formed with minimal fuss as was the case with the voting proceedings......

Even though congress and Uml is wining by big difference leaving the Maoist apart, the result of samanupatik is still to come out. this is just election for making constitution, no wonder I guess its gonna be same discussion and debate just like happened last time ( I hope not this time and be able to make out final constitution)

@riddle, I am guessing you are referring to "bhedas" to a different group than what I am referring to. Bhedas are followers, in this context Nepali citizens. I think you are referring to Bheds (hindi) to the political leaders and their chronies.

@atomic, good point. I am certain that samanupatik result will be better for Maoists, much better..but I have been wrong many times.

 @atomic and Kiddo,

Yes the Maoist are gonna get many seats in proportional, but based on current trend it seems they will get around 20 to 22 % votes, which will give them around 70 to 80 seats. If they win 20 to 25 seats in FTTP, that will give them only 100 to 110 seats. But it seems both NC and UML are going to get 34 to 38 % votes in proportional (115 to 130 seats) and around 70 to 80 seats in FTTP. If NC and UML work together then Maoists shouldn't be a problem this time.

Congress and UML needs to get 2/3rd votes otherwise constitution will not be written easily.

Now congress and UML will try to pass their agendas in CC and Mao will block every one of the disputed agendas.

Amen, Sparty. 

Even if combination of NC and UML fail to win ( which is most unlikely) there will always be floor crosser. MPs from Madhesi party when they see their leaders turn out to be big time suckers will put themselves for sale and either UML or NC will buyout them. 

Mao needs to get less than 1/3rd for easy constitution making. If they get more than that they will do their best to not let pass any disputed agendas. They definetly dont want to give full and easy credit for Congress and UML to complete constitution. They will not deter from " haruwa goru ko cherua taal" strategy. Just what i think.

I am hesitant to resonate with the optimism here. It mainly seems to stem from the belief that beating Maoists will cure everything. However, the leaders we're electing are pretty much the same cronies as Maoists that have perpetuated corruption and nepotism since the 1990s. When will young leaders within this party will get to lead the country? The media is busy praising leaders like Deuba who has become a prime minister 3 times, as if it were some kind of competition.