By Connie Levett Herald Correspondent in Kathmandu
February 4, 2006
IT WAS late evening when the sentry stood aside and saluted the army truck filled with men in fatigues as it rolled through the gate of the Thankot police post on the outskirts of Kathmandu.
Inside, the police were in roll call and unarmed. Seconds later, a grenade exploded and the "soldiers" began a well-planned bloody attack that left 12 police dead. Long before back-up arrived, the attackers were gone.
The attack sent a shiver through the capital. Just two weeks after the Maoists ended their unilateral ceasefire on January 2, the rebels were literally at the city gates. Thankot is the most important entry point to the city.
Shanka Shresta, 50, who runs a stall under the outside wall of the police post, saw three Maoists in combat dress. "My shop was open; I hid under the bench. It's the first time I see the Maoists here, now I am very afraid," he said.
After 10 years of fighting in rural districts, the rebels have promised to bring their battle to the capital, declaring a new strategy of "sitting on the back and hitting the head". They already control 70 per cent of the countryside; in more remote areas, the army controls little more than its own barracks. Analysts say the head means both the capital and the king.
"The king and the Maoists need to talk, and then it can be solved," Mr Shresta said.
That conversation seems unlikely. King Gyanendra will not talk to the Maoists until they agree to decommission their weapons. The Maoists will not talk to the king until he agrees to set up a constituent assembly to draw up a new constitution and brings in the United Nations to oversee the decommissioning.
A year after the king took power in a coup, the country is in a dangerous stalemate. Democracy is on hold, the Maoist ceasefire has been lifted and the king grows ever more unpopular.
"The king is a thief, evacuate the palace, the king is a thief, he must leave the country," protesters have chanted on the streets of Kathmandu every day this week.
Sachit Sumsher Jung Bahadur Rana, a close adviser to the king and former chief of the army, said: "When his majesty took over, one of his important promises was to put democracy on the rails again and to give power back within three years."
Next week's municipal elections are part of the king's "road map to democracy" and part of a campaign to build international legitimacy for his rule.
Since the coup, the US, Britain and India have cut off military aid to Nepal. Now the main opposition parties are boycotting the elections and the Maoists have promised to take "severe action" against those who participate.
Even the most ardent supporters of a return to democracy reject the elections, condemned inside and outside the country as a farce. The Government cannot find enough candidates to fill the positions (2104 of the 4146 posts have no nominees; many more were elected unopposed).
There are widespread reports of candidates who were nominated without their knowledge and then withdrew, and later, of police holding nominees in barracks and denying access to family to ensure they did not withdraw.
The alliance of the seven main political parties, many of whose leaders have gone underground to avoid arrest, has called for an election boycott. The European Union describes the election as a setback to democracy.
In Thankot, a well-educated young police inspector spoke on condition of anonymity. "I am a student of democracy. I like it; I love it. I will not get a chance to vote because I am far from home, but if I was there, I would not vote. These elections are not fair."
But the king does have some supporters. Janakpur, near the Indian border in eastern Nepal, is a town where a man with a modern bicycle is a wealthy man. But despite the poverty it has no history of Maoist activity.
Bijaya Lal Das, a long-time political activist, was the first candidate to stand for mayor.
"He didn't think there was any threat of danger," his brother, Nathuna Lal Das, said. "No threat was received, there was no public threat from the Maoists then."
On January 22, Bijaya Lal Das was shot with a revolver three times at close range in his office by two young men. The Maoists later claimed responsibility. The remaining candidates for Janakpur are now under police protection.
"I will vote. In a democracy everybody has this one right," Nathuna Lal Das said. "The king has promised to hand over democracy once the election is held and I believe in the king's commitment."
In recent weeks, the king has performed a carefully staged tour of rural areas to meet the people."On his majesty's tour, the people were saying 'We want peace'," said Mr Rana, who is understood to speak for the king.
"Democracy is the will of the people. What the people want, this is the ultimate democracy … [The king] wants people to exercise democratic power soon. He doesn't understand the seven parties, who are supposed to be democratic, why they don't join."
When he took power, the king used the deteriorating law-and-order situation to justify his move. In an address to the nation on Wednesday, marking the first anniversary of his coup, he claimed the Maoist insurgency had been reduced to "petty crimes" in the past year.
His did not mention the Thankot attack or one in Tansen in central-western Nepal, just a few hours before he spoke. In Tansen, hundreds of Maoists overran the town, setting fire to police and army buildings, killing 11 soldiers and abducting 22, including the chief district officer.
A Nepalese journalist, Shiva Gaunle, the last person to interview the Maoist leaders, last November, believes that despite recent attacks the rebels are looking for a safe landing.
"They have fought for 10 years but there is no sign of any victory. They run 70 per cent of the country but victory is nothing if they don't have the urban areas," Gaunle said. "In the remaining 30 per cent, 70 per cent of the security is based there."
He believes the king, rather than the Maoists, holds the country's fortunes in his hands.
"If he steps down it doesn't solve the problem but it starts the process," he said. "But my experience of the last year is there is no likelihood the king will step down."
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