What follows is my comments on Murari Raj Sharma-jee's op-ed "राजाका पछाडि कुन शक्ति छ ?" in Nepal National Weekly (- http://www.kantipuronline.com/Nepal/tippani.php ).

Murari-jee has collected various views from the people in close contact with him and appears to giving more credence to the theory that CIA or China might be behind the King's actions.

In my reply, I have tried to explain why CIA or China are unlikely to be behind Feb 1 coup d'état and have presented my own theory that the King did Feb 1 on his own simply being encouraged by the moral weakness of the leadership of political parties.

I have also talked about how Girija Prasad Koirala unwillingness to credibly confront the King has weakened the movement.

I have already shared this with Murari-jee in Nep Dem Google group.


----- Original Message -----
From: Deepak Khadka
To: nepaldemocracy@googlegroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 08, 2006 8:40 PM
Subject: [ND] Re: By Murari Sharma-

...i-jee,

Collection of interesting opinions.

My own opinion is different. I think there is not any foreign power that has encouraged or supported the King for taking over the power.

My views in more detail, for everybody's reading pleasure (or woe):

It is true that the US government does not want to oppose the King too much and China does not want to oppose it at all. However, that is hardly a support for King's Feb 1 action and ambition.

The King did Feb 1 on his own, without any support from any foreign power. I am sure about that. Simply because no foreign power should see any long term benefits from bringing king's dictatorship which is sure to be of a short life in present Nepal.

The US government, or CIA for that matter, might see the King as a strategic balance for the extreme left. However, that applies only when the King is uncontroversial and well respected by politically active mass. That's not been the case here. In long term, the King has axed his own leg by Feb 1. I don't think CIA analysts are too dumb not to see/speculate it.

So, it is not conceivable that CIA is behind Feb 1.

The reluctance of the US government to corner the King on the other hand needs to be understood in terms of what our own Girija Prasad Koirala-jee has to say. Koirala-jee has semi-publicly warned that removal of the monarch is risky because, according to him, that is going to create a political "vacuum". (it is funny that Koirala-jee who is supposed to fill that vacuum does not see himself. However, let's not go there).

So, when Koirala-jee himself is opposed to the idea of removing the monarch, how and why can we expect that the US government will want to harm the King, as yet ?

As for going back to the pre-Oct 2002 status quo, I think this is what the US government wants and, in fact, all of it's reactions are in agreement with this wish. The only thing is that the US government does not seem to be in a hurry or disperate. However, that can be perfectly explained. What's the point of "taapke taatnu bhanda bind pahile taatnu" ?

Is Koirala-jee in a hurry and disparate ?

May be in a hurry, but not disparate. Not at all. A disparate man takes disparate steps. If Koirala-jee is disparate, he would pass a credible threat to the King. But he is not. Why Koirala-jee is not doing that is a matter a big and separate discussion. But the point is, Koirala-jee is not ready to confront the King yet. So, at this point, why would the US government go one step ahead of Koirala and do to the King what we all wish it did ? Makes no strategic and diplomatic sense.

So that was about the US/CIA.

Now, China.

I think China's foreign policy, for years already, has been governed by it's own fear of foreign interfere in it's internal affairs, which is perfectly understandable giving it's political system and other vulnerabilities. So China's foreign policy has been this 'one size fits all country' mantra- "We don't care about anybody's internal affairs, we don't allow anybody to care about our internal affairs. Hisab kitab baraabar".

There does not seem to be any deviation from this standard Chinese policy in case of our internal affairs. China's donations so far does not amount to additional support to the King than otherwise Nepal will be getting regularly from China. In fact, China seems to be cautious not to appear supporting the King more than it would be supporting Nepal otherwise.

China is not ready to play the game of manipulating foreign nations as yet, because stability of China (that is, no foreign interference in it's internal affairs among others) is more precious than anything else for China. It thinks a legitimacy for non-interference comes from the practice of non-interference itself. That's standard Chinese thinking, in my amateur eyes. (I know our group has some experts in International affairs. I hope I am not making them laugh with my amateur views !)

So I really don't think China is after manipulating political system of Nepal. And then I don't think Chinese policy makers are really that dumb to think that King's regime is there to stay for very long.

So the fact that King's dictatorship is for a short period of time in Nepal is a common speculation for any rationally thinking person and nation. This also means any dealing, overt or covert, made with the King is also a short-lived. So who would have helped the King to bring a dictatorial regime in Nepal ? I don't think any person and nation sensible to it's long term good should have done it.

Now the billion dollar question. Then, what makes the King going on without blinking his eyes ?

Well, my theory which I have hazarded on several occasions in this forum is that the King does not think he has a formidable rival yet. Why king ? Even I, king's arch rival, do not think we have presented a quality alternative to the King's as yet. Girija Prasad Koirala. We know how much respect he commands from the general people, don't we ? And add to that, Koirala-jee's own reluctance to fight the King.

So, our well-open vulnerability due to poor political leadership, and nothing and nobody else, was behind king's Feb 1 misadventure.

We don't need to investigate Beijing and Washington DC to find the mystery of Feb 1.

The quality of leadership of Shree Girija Prasad Koirala jyu has all the secrets we need to know. And that is also where lies the secret of making Loktantrik andolan successful. The Loktantrik kitta needs to dump Girija Koirala-jyu and find a new leader with no baggage on it's shoulder. In that case, even a Lauro (Ganeshmanjee's famous allegory) will do. Just not Girija Prasad Koirala. That's all.

Difficult ? Yes.

Impossible ? No.

Will the movement for Loktantra move ahead and succeed under the leadership of Girija Prasad Koirala ?

I don't think so.

So there is no point hurrying until the man understands that he no more is required. SO, for now, I am taking rest and writing this ghazal. Friends, keep the torch of Loktantra aflame for me, will you ?

भगुवा अगुवा देखी
पछ्‌छिन हच्किएको हुँ

बींड मात्तै कति तात्‌नु
भनेर चिसिएको हुँ

यात्रा रोकेको कहाँ हो
साथी पो पर्खिएको हुँ

More here:
http://www.sajha.com/sajha/html/openthreadall.cfm?forum=271&threadid=26626&start=201#205297

D....

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Yes, I frequently refer to Sajha in Nep Dem Google group. So, I guess it's a fair deal to refer Nep Dem Google group in Sajha as well.

त्यस अतिरिक्त, साझाको अधिक संख्याको र विविधतापूर्ण पाठकको लोभ संवरण गर्न नै कहाँ सक्नु र ?

Nepe

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China Ace..
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Gen. Pakiza..
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Non-Resident Nepali NRN
Dr. Giri..
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सायमीजी,

हि-हि-हि ! आफ्नै नाकमा व्यस्त त्यस्तो जियाङ के राजाको पछाडि बस्न आयो होला र ? बरु मुसर्रफलाई शंका गर्न सुहाउँछ । तर उसले गर्ने मद्दत नै के छ र ? अनि यी गैरआवासिय नेपाली छन त छन् पछाडि, तर उही पाध सुँधेर 'आहा' भन्न बाहेक के सक्छन् यिनले ?

धन्यवाद है तस्बिरको लागि ।