The untapped might of the Himalayas
Stanley A. Weiss International Herald Tribune
WASHINGTON What do the following have in common? Nepal's brutal Maoist rebellion. India's violence-racked northeastern states. China's global energy race with India. Warming ties between Pakistan and India. Bangladesh's increasing Islamic extremism.
Answer: water.
Specifically, the thousands of glacier-fed rivers of Nepal and Bhutan, the tiny Himalayan kingdoms sandwiched between India and China. The vast hydro-electric potential of these raging rivers could serve as the centerpiece of a long-term regional energy strategy promoting stability and prosperity across South Asia.
Poverty-stricken Nepal and Bhutan as a regional energy hub? Admittedly, these countries at the top of the world rank near the bottom of virtually every measure of development. Most Nepalese and Bhutanese literally live in the dark, without electricity or potable water.
In Nepal, the nine-year-old Maoist insurgency has occasionally shut down power plants and spooked foreign investors. Having harnessed less than 1 percent of its hydropower potential, Nepal last year imported electricity from India.
Such dire conditions make development more urgent, not less. Just as extreme poverty fuels the Maoist insurgency, better economics can make for better politics. As Farooq Sobhan, president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute, told me, "energy is an area where all the countries of South Asia have much to gain through cooperation."
For Bhutan and Nepal, exporting hydroelectricity to energy-hungry India could generate wealth beyond their dreams. "Water is to us what oil is to the Arabs," King Wangchuck of Bhutan has said.
For Nepal, using hydro dollars to bring roads, electricity, drinking water, health clinics and schools to the countryside would also be the best way to fight the poverty - and the Maoists.
For India, which is aggressively pursuing an annual economic growth rate of 8 percent, hydroelectricity could end the power shortages that shrink its gross domestic product by an entire percentage point every year. Job-creating hydro projects could also temper secessionist movements in the country's volatile northeastern states.
How can these countries turn their water into white gold?
First, natural resources must not be seen as a zero-sum game. "The real problem is the lack of political trust between nations and the reluctance to deal with energy as a shared opportunity," explained Uday Bhaskar of India's Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.
Indeed, the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which has survived several wars between India and Pakistan, proves that even adversaries can bridge troubled waters.
To tap the natural bounty of the Himalayas, Nepal must get over its inferiority complex that prevents closer economic ties with its big Indian neighbor. Bangladesh must get over the irrational nationalism that prevents it from exporting natural gas to India.
India must be more sensitive to the legitimate water worries of its smaller neighbors. What's good for New Delhi must also be good for the region, economically and ecologically. For example, as part of their new "strategic partnership" and plans for joint energy ventures, China and India should stop treating Nepal and Bhutan as buffer zones and instead see them as future hydro-based economic zones.
Second, current strife in Nepal should hasten, not halt, development. King Gyanendra's decision last week to lift the state of emergency he imposed in February should be welcomed in New Delhi as a first step toward resuming military and development assistance to Nepal. Likewise, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank should continue, not cut off, aid projects that help Nepal realize its hydropower ambitions.
Third, India should champion a regional energy strategy. As the region's biggest energy consumer, New Delhi has little to lose and much to gain from linking the power grids of the seven-nation South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.
To the east, Bangladesh has conditionally agreed to open its territory to a pipeline carrying natural gas from Myanmar to India. In return, New Delhi should open its power grid to carrying Himalayan hydropower to Bangladesh. And to the west, connecting the electrical grids of India and Pakistan could complement plans for a "peace pipeline" carrying natural gas from Iran to India across Pakistan.
"The technology is there to start connecting these countries tomorrow," said Hugh McDermott, who manages the South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy, sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development. "All that's missing is the political will and the financial commitment."
Finally, hydro dollars should end the paradox of countries being resource-rich but people-poor. Bhutan could be a model. Under King Wangchuck, famous for favoring Gross National Happiness over Gross Domestic Product, exports of hydroelectricity to India now generate nearly half of all government revenues and fund critical improvements in health and education.
The icy rivers of the Himalayas are not holy water that will miraculously cure the region's ills. But for those seeking practical answers to some of the urgent challenges facing South Asia, it would certainly be a blessing.
(Stanley A. Weiss is founder and chairman of Business Executives for National Security, a nonpartisan Organization based in Washington.)
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