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le chef du nuit
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 the maoist variable
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Posted on 04-23-06 1:38 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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.
its now a foregone conclusion that g's days are numbered
and altho this might be jumping the gun, counting unhatched chickens or whatever, the questions still remain..
as soon as g falls, the maoists are going to launch a concerted campaign to take over the country
we cannot be blind to this eventuality
what must be done to stop them?
 
Posted on 04-23-06 1:58 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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the army variable should also be factored in into the equation. the army's loyalty is right now 1) to the crown, then 2) to the flag, then 3) to the people. if the army develops allegiance to the people/constitution, we can hope that the 80K army + armed police + police forces can maintain some law and order until elections are administered and ballots counted. the army is not going to go away just cos the monarchy does. the details need to be thought out as the situation unfolds. right now, there is too much uncertainty. the biggest uncertainty is: where will the army loyalty lie? the next biggest uncertainty: how can the armies be combined?
 
Posted on 04-23-06 2:12 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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if the maoists launch a POLITICAL campaign as A political party, it's OK. if they launch a campaign of terror and coercion, then it's not OK. as much as i shudder to think of having a butcher like pushpe lead a democratic nepal, if that's the outcome of a free and fair election then what can one do? (the emphasis here is on "free and fair") i think most people feel oppressed by the maoists, and may not overwhelmingly vote for them.

to ensure a free and fair election, we need our house re-instated. the royal clock goes tick tock tick tok....
 
Posted on 04-23-06 2:20 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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The funniest thing I read in sajha is about what their plans on what one should do about the Maoists. One should ask if the Maoists can brought under the control by demostrations in major urban centers of Nepal.

Maoists do not have support in major urban centers of Nepal in the first therefore if anything matters to them.
 
Posted on 04-23-06 2:27 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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that was the funniest thing you read in sajha? you have a wierd sense of humor. that much is certain. do we need demonstrations to control maoists? if the voices of people can be heard through the ballot, then there is no need for demonstrations. " Maoists do not have support in major urban centers of Nepal in the first therefore if anything matters to them. " so what? i fail to see the logic.
 
Posted on 04-23-06 2:43 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Zalim
It is a simple logic...for example if you are an industrialist or lets say you own a car tire mafucturing plant. Your company supplies rubber from Brazil so how the hell it will affect you if anti-rubber demostration takes in Estonia (after all Estonia is not a rubber producing country at all).

Similarly the vast majority of Maoist recruits come from rural areas of Nepal AND NOT from major urban centers of Nepal so does it really make a difference if there is a major anti-Maoist demostrations in major urban centers of Nepal. Their supply of new recruits into thier military dont dry up just because there are demonstrations in major urban centers of Nepal because they didnt get (nior do they expect to get) a vast majority of recruits from major urban centers of Nepal anyway.

The Maoist dont have grip on major urban centers of Nepal politically therefore it becomes very logical that they dont waste resource to appease the people of urban centers of Nepal or ignore them all together and win over them by their rular based military might.
 
Posted on 04-23-06 2:58 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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ya, but you are making a lot of assumptions. like the fact that maoists are happy living in teh jungles and fighting the war forever. pushpe certainly would want to cruise around ktm in an suv instead of running in hte jungles forever. this was the major reason why they allied with teh 7 parties cos they dont themselves see recruitng soldiers and fighting in the jungles foreever. IF they enter mainstream politics (a big IF here) then a lot of the problems will be solved. i gotta go do my assignment for class...later
 


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