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 WSJ - Diplomacy May Pay Off in Nepal
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Posted on 04-27-06 6:17 AM     Reply [Subscribe]
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We have to use the articles on today's WSJ with grain of salt because I don't have too much faith in western reporters' understanding of marginalized countries like Nepal. Nonetheless, articles like these influence public opinion there and to the extent such public opinion affect the national policies, it is important for Nepalese to understand how Nepal issue is discussed and try to frame it appropriately...

My own view is that the Maoist insurgency-terrorism is not going to go away soon. There is lot of mistrust. For any negotiated settlement, trust is the most important factor. I fear that the RNA could be a spoiler. It could easily destablize and discredite the popular government by pursuing independent actions. Just yesterday, RNA attacked Maoists in Tanahau despite the govt ceasefire, not a good sign.

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Diplomacy May Pay Off in Nepal
U.S., China and India Overcome Differences to Help Avert Crisis
By PETER WONACOTT
April 27, 2006; Page A8

KATMANDU, Nepal -- Relations among the U.S. and emerging Asian powers China and India are increasingly complex and fraught with potential conflicts. But in Nepal, the three countries struck an unusual diplomatic alliance to help avert a political meltdown that could threaten the region's stability.

Diplomats say the Washington-Beijing-New Delhi partnership in Nepal offers an example of how strategic interests can converge despite frictions elsewhere.

Tomorrow, Nepal's King Gyanendra will reopen the nation's Parliament, 16 months after he dissolved the institution, jailed political opponents and assumed absolute power in this Himalayan monarchy. A newly nominated prime minister chosen by the country's political parties, Girija Prasad Koirala, will head the new government. The move followed bloody street clashes between police and tens of thousands of protesters, and marks a huge comedown for the king, who is likely to be confined to a ceremonial role with little political sway.

Democracy advocates are jubilant. But Nepal's political outlook might have turned out differently, if it hadn't been for the partnership of worried foreign governments that intervened to try to defuse the crisis.

In recent weeks, ambassadors of the U.S., India and China -- as well as Britain -- have worked closely to pressure King Gyanendra to restore democratic rule and end a confrontation that threatened to feed a growing, decade-long rebellion by Maoist militants.

Ambassadors held one-on-one conversations to hash out a collective approach to the problem. A final intensive diplomatic push followed, when several ambassadors met the king in succession. According to a diplomat with knowledge of the meetings, they delivered a unified message: Step aside. Five days later, the king announced that he planned to transfer power to the people.

"The overwhelming bad was a Maoist victory," said a Western diplomat in Katmandu involved in the talks. Diplomats here said they feared the Maoists were edging closer to power as they exploited the crisis to expand their insurgency. The Maoists already control large swaths of Nepal's countryside, obtained in a rebellion that has taken more than 10,000 lives. During the recent weeks of protests in Katmandu, the Maoists had thrown up roadblocks on major highways leading to the capital to support the antimonarchy campaign.

"If the Maoists take over, they are going to destabilize the region," said the Western diplomat. Among other things, India, China and the U.S. feared the country could become a center of illicit arms trade and a base for exporting radical political doctrine. India, which has been battling its own Maoist insurgencies for several years, was particularly alarmed.

Yesterday, Maoist rebels withdrew their highway blockades but gave Nepal's political parties a two-day deadline to begin the process of drafting a new constitution, their leader, Prachanda, said in a statement, the Associated Press reported. Those actions were followed early Thursday by the declaration of a three-month unilateral cease-fire.

With the return of parliamentary rule, some foreign governments appear ready to kick in aid. India is considering a "substantial" aid package, says Rameshore Prasad Khanal, joint secretary for the foreign-aid-coordination division in Nepal's Ministry of Finance.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher told reporters in Washington on Tuesday that the U.S. is considering resuming military aid, which was suspended when the king seized emergency powers in February last year. "We would like to have a normal relationship with Nepal across the board, including a normal relationship with the army," he said.

China's Foreign Ministry also praised the developments.

The applause comes even as these countries face off on other fronts. China and India have a history of border disputes and are jostling in Asia and beyond for oil and other resources. Both countries are wary of the U.S. military presence in nearby Afghanistan and its influence in other neighboring countries. Meanwhile, the U.S. is unhappy with Beijing's huge trade surplus and uneasy with its increasing military might.

Still, some critics say these countries took too long to use their combined influence on an autocratic king and warn that they now risk breathing a sigh of relief too soon. Nepal still lacks well-functioning democratic institutions, and with more than 40% of its people unemployed, its economy is in shambles. Moreover, the Maoist threat still looms, with the well-armed rebels warning they will quickly resume military action against the government if they aren't accommodated in Nepal's new political arena.

The International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization that conducts policy analysis in conflict-ridden countries, says foreign powers must devise a coordinated approach to help solve Nepal's most nettlesome problems. The ICG urges shifting control of the military to civilian leadership and starting peace talks with Maoist militants. "We are at the start of a very precarious transition," says Rhoderick Chalmers, the group's South Asian deputy project director in Katmandu.

India has long taken the lead on Nepalese issues on the international stage, and one immediate question is how great a role New Delhi will want other powers, including the U.S., to continue to play.

Another question is how vigorously Beijing will back a democratic Nepal. Until early this year, China was King Gyanendra's one staunch ally. But as the king's unpopularity grew, China shifted its stance.

---- Rasul Bailay contributed to this article.

Write to Peter Wonacott at peter.wonacott@wsj.com
 


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