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 Economics forecasting- please help
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Posted on 08-21-06 1:34 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Hey guys, i was wondering if you guys could make some educated guess depending on this hypothetical indicators. please help me...

The economic indicators are as follows:

Average weekly unemployment claims: 403,000 ---- Declining
Manufacturer's new orders 520,999----- increasing
New private housing starts: 1649-------- declining
S and P 500 stomarket index: 879.15----- declining
Money Supply ( M2) : $ 5984.15--- declining
consumer expectations index: 94.5 ---declining

# Explain the current exniroment as expressed in the data above. In other worlds, wher in the business cycle is the economy.

# How will you adjust your operation to maximinze profit or minimize loss given your expectations of the economy?
 
Posted on 08-21-06 1:36 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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ha ha ha
do your own homework. he he
piggyback riding on someone ain't gonna help you. :-)
 
Posted on 08-21-06 1:46 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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lol... i've got my opinion.. i wanted to see what you guys have...
 
Posted on 08-21-06 2:00 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Looks like a perfect formula for a sustained economic recession.... but on the second thought... what is the inflation rate?
 
Posted on 08-21-06 5:33 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Dyamn,
Before anyone can make an educated guess, I guess you need to see the rate at which its increasing or decreasing.
A minor decline is perfectly okay and sometimes there are cyclical fluctuations which are not a surprise.
Unemployment claims are declining and new orders are increasing....signals a better side. More employment is possible if such is the case. However, why are the expectations going down ? Foreign relations? Domestic market volatility? Look at this issue in detail coz this plays a greater role than expected. This affects savings rate (alternatively consumption spending and your business orders in the future)

So, look at the previous few records. Otherwise, simple words like declining, increasing, decreasing do not make an educated guess for an economist. A poor question !!!
 
Posted on 08-22-06 7:30 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Here are some thoughts which may be helpful to you .
1. Average weekly unemployment claim declinining is a good sign that economy is at least creating some jobs.As unemployment goes down, there is an upward pressure in the general price level. Fed is using contractionary monetary policy to decrease the money supply which will increase the interest rate , which affects new housing start.

2. Manufacturer's new orders increasing is a good sign that business inventory is declining. Aggregate demand is containing the total production.

3. Stock market index can go up or down in any given day. Unless , there is a continuous increase or decrease, it's not a serious issue.

4. Unemployment goes down-people's income goes up- consumption goes up-aggregate demand goes up-real GDP goes up as well as general price level


5. Fed is worried about this upward pressure in the price level, that why Mr. Bernanke is increasing ineterest rate through decreasing money supply to reduce the inflation

6.As interest goes up, consumer will put hold on buying big ticket items like HD TV, washer, dryer, sound system .

7. As increase in short term interest rate translates into long term interest rate, demand for housing will go down.

8. The inflationary pressure in the economy right now is due to cost push inflation. That means not because people have enough money and are competing for goods but because price of gas is consistently on the rise.


Now, to answer your question, with mixed performance of the current economic indicators, economy is at the last stage of recovery and almost at the point of expansion but high gas price has stopped the expansion process. But economy is not going to see another reccession in near future.


The best action to take right now is to pu a hold on purchasing big ticket items. Invest in gold , and buy US treasury bonds

Hope it helps
 
Posted on 08-23-06 10:08 AM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Wonders. Oh boy! Nepalese Economist at work. If only these economist used what they learned in the United States and practice in Nepal i forecast that Nepal's economic and development would be much better.

thanx
 


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