A peace deal in Nepal -
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8156911 Nov 10th 2006
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
Hopes for an end to conflict in the mountain kingdom Nepal's Maoist rebels and the ruling alliance of seven political parties have reached a breakthrough agreement that paves the way for the Maoists' participation in an interim government, before the election of a Constituent Assembly (CA) next year. Important concessions have been made by both sides with regard to disarming the rebels and deciding the future role of the monarchy. However, there are still many obstacles on the road to constitutional reform—not least uncertainty over the Maoists' willingness to co-operate within a democratic system.
Compromise There is real hope that the agreements reached in the early hours of November 8th will mark the end of the Maoists' decade-long insurgency to replace Nepal's constitutional monarchy with a communist republic. The conflict has cost an estimated 13,000 lives. There is also hope that the accord will be sufficiently robust to allow the process of constitutional reform to get under way. Progress on this goal is obviously dependent on the establishment of a lasting peace. Several rounds of negotiations to this end have been held since April, when the autocratic king, Gyanendra, was forced by popular protest to hand power to a multi-party government. But the issues of disarming the Maoist guerrillas and deciding what to do with the king have been major stumbling blocks until now.
The Maoists had insisted that they would not disarm before elections for the CA were held. But holding free and fair elections would have been impossible while armed rebel forces—with a reputation for coercion and intimidation—controlled large swathes of Nepal. In earlier talks the Maoists had agreed in principle to place their soldiers and weapons under UN supervision, but the details were not worked out until the most recent negotiations. According to the agreement, the Maoists will place their 35,000 "regular" troops in seven cantonments around Nepal (each with three smaller camps), where they will be confined until the elections. Their weapons will be placed in sealed caches nearby, to which they will have access but which will be monitored remotely by UN supervisors. The government will lock up a similar number of its own weapons as a goodwill gesture.
Another major sticking point had been the manner in which the future role of the king should be decided. The Maoists, who had originally insisted on the abolition of the monarchy altogether, demanded at the least that his position be suspended in the period of interim government. Some of the parties in the ruling seven-party alliance had instead insisted that a referendum be held to decide on the future role of the monarchy. In the event, both sides have agreed that the role of the monarchy will be decided in the CA in its first meeting, by a simple majority.
The agreement also finalises various details about the schedule and procedure for constitutional reform. The CA is to be elected next June and will have 425 seats, 205 directly elected by existing constituencies, 204 filled through proportional representation and 16 appointed by the prime minister of the interim government. (The current prime minister, Girija Prasad Koirala of the Nepali Congress, or NC, will retain his position.) Before this, the Maoists will join a transitional government to be established by December 1st, and will contribute at least five representatives to a proposed 23-member council of ministers. They will also nominate 73 representatives to an expanded interim parliament, making them the second-largest party behind the NC. The Maoists have promised to dismantle the parallel "people's government" and "people's courts" structures in the areas under their control.
Problems ahead While the agreement is very encouraging, there are many unresolved issues that could yet derail the process of constitutional reform. For instance, although the Maoists' 35,000 regular guerrillas will be under UN supervision, it is estimated that the rebels control an informal militia of around 100,000 people, most equipped with small arms, who are not mentioned in the agreement. If Maoist leaders do issue orders for these units to disband, it is not certain that they will do so willingly—especially as many will have become used to collecting "taxes" from the rural population, and will lack alternative employment to fall back on.
Another issue is whether the Maoists will be willing to work in a democratic system if they do not fare well in elections for the CA next year (or if the CA either votes to retain the monarchy or fails to draft a constitution along the lines they had envisioned). Maoist cadres running "people's governments" in the regions developed a reputation for compelling the local population to co-operate, by force if necessary. Kidnapping and extortion were commonplace in the regions under Maoist control before a ceasefire was negotiated in April, and an independent monitoring committee has reported various violations of the ceasefire since then.
Residents of Kathmandu have been exposed to the kind of Maoist intimidation that was until this year confined to the regions. Even as the negotiations with the government continued this week, Maoists were reportedly demanding of householders in the capital that they shelter and feed ten Maoist cadres each when they converge on the city ahead of a planned mass rally on November 10th. The city residents took to the streets in protest at the intimidation, leading Maoist commanders to issue denials that they had used such tactics (saying "requests" for help had been misinterpreted as demands).
Another matter not covered in the agreement is whether the 35,000 regulars will be merged with the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA), as the Maoists have demanded. The RNA, known for its loyalty to Nepal's monarch, has been confined to barracks since King Gyanendra relinquished his power in April but could yet be moved to take action if it is compelled to co-operate with the rebel forces it has been fighting for the past ten years. It would retain the support of pro-monarchist parties, who have been excluded from the interim government, if it did so.
Interim instability
The Maoists will gain a measure of political respectability by becoming the second-largest party in the interim parliament, but this is likely to exacerbate tensions in the run-up to the CA election next year. During this phase, interest groups that have remained relatively subdued could emerge to try to influence the process. Opposition could come from Hindu fundamentalists opposed to secularism, from royalists attempting to carve space for themselves, and from sections of the army that may have reservations regarding the way in which the political parties and the Maoists want to restructure government.
It will remain vital that the seven-party alliance remains united until next June, but the parties have a history of bickering among themselves, and this could work against them, as both the Maoists and the royalists would be likely to use this weakness to their own advantage. Even though all seven parties supported the agreement with the Maoists, two dissenting notes were issued by the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), over the desirability of a referendum to decide the future of the monarchy and the fact that not all the CA will be elected by proportional representation. Another situation that could spark a dispute among the parties is one in which there is a need to replace Mr Koirala as head of government; some of the parties' leaders have begun talking of the need to consider a replacement, in view of the prime minister's frailty (he is 84 and is having to visit hospital on a regular basis).
For now, however, there is unity amid the optimism that with the insurgency almost at an end, the real business of building a modern Nepal can begin.
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