Experts rule out possibility of quake in near future [ 2007-6-16 ]
By Akhil Sitoula
KATHMANDU June 15: Experts have ruled out the possibility of earthquake hitting Nepal in the immediate future as there is no scientific basis to forecast quakes within short-time intervals.

Following rumours that the nation would face an earthquake of a massive scale between June 22 and July 10, engineers, geologists and representatives of the National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET) organised an interaction Friday to refute the prediction.

Residents of in and outside the capital city have been filled with fear after an astrologer said that a quake would hit the country in the immediate future.

Scientific studies have revealed that it might be possible to forecast the long-term tectonic movements in the inner part of the earth's core. "But it was not possible to predict the same for a short time period," experts said.

Nepal's geological positioning is such that it is situated between two huge landmasses and is under a constant threat of earthquake. Amidst this reality, people should always take the precautionary measures to ensure their safety, structural engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha said.

Nepal has been identified as the eleventh most earthquake prone zones in the world, according to national and international reports.

Most earthquakes are concentrated along the boundaries of the earth's plate because of the cycle of the earth's crust and the inner core movement, Shrestha said.

Indian tectonic plates continue to be overlapped by the Tibetan tectonic plate. This has led the upper crust of the plates to develop fault lines. According to NSET, 92 fault lines have been identified in Nepal and two of them are in Kathmandu. Earthquake occurs in the process of the movement of the earth's crust. As Nepal is situated between the two, it naturally experiences jolts from time to time. Scientists presume that an earthquake of massive scale follows a ninety-year cycle.

If an earthquake of the same scale as the one that hit Nepal in 1990 B.S. (1934) recurred then some 40,000 people would die and the number of injured would climb to more than 95,000. This finding of a NSET study was carried out seven years back.

Sixty per cent of the buildings are likely to be destroyed and 700,000 people would be rendered homeless. The damages of bridge, road, water supply, telephone lines have been forecast at 50 per cent, 10 per cent, 95 per cent and 60 per cent respectively. The snapping of power lines has been put at 40 per cent, according to the study.

Despite extensive research in developed countries, the system of earthquake prediction has not attained the level to use confidently outside experimental environments. For a developing country like Nepal, the mobilisation of resources should be focussed on preparedness and mitigation.

Ten gigantic quakes hit Nepal between 1310 B.S. and 1990 B.S. a time period covering 680 years. More than eight Richter scale of energy is being stored in the earth's core; hence an earthquake of the same magnitude could be possible in the future, according to the report.

Scientists, however, have not been able to predict earthquakes so far. As earthquakes are unpredictable and unavoidable, the government needs to hold earthquake preparedness training and thereby educate the general public, experts said.

Strict building codes to minimise the impact of earthquake should be followed. Nepal has 80 earthquake instructors to launch quake preparedness training and awareness raising. Training has already been disseminated in 70 different schools aimed at minimising the impact of earthquakes.

People have also been trained at the local level. They are currently involved in raising awareness at the community level and educating the pubic on quake preparedness, NSET said.
(Sitoula is an intern at TRN)