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 Fed Cuts Key Interest Rate
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Posted on 09-18-07 1:43 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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By far the biggest news of the day!!!! It should have a positive direct or indirect impact on all of us...at least for the near future esp for those invested in the market.

DOW hitting 15000 is a very much probable now.

==================================================

AP
Fed Cuts Key Interest Rate
Tuesday September 18, 2:33 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fed Cuts Key Interest Rate in Effort to Fend Off Recession


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate for the first time in four years, seeking with an aggressive half-point move to prevent a steep housing slump and turbulent financial markets from triggering a recession.

The Fed announced Tuesday that it was reducing its target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, from 5.25 percent to 4.75 percent. The half-point reduction was double the quarter-point move that many economists had been expecting.

The action was designed to boost economic growth by lowering borrowing costs for millions of consumers and businesses. Commercial banks were expected to quickly match the Fed's action by cutting their prime lending rate. The prime rate has been at 8.25 percent for the past 15 months.

The Fed's action came in the midst of the worst slump in housing in 16 years. That downturn has triggered record defaults in subprime mortgages and roiled financial markets around the globe as investors have become worried about where the spreading credit problems will next appear.

The financial market turmoil represents the first major test for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who took over from the venerable Alan Greenspan in February 2006.

In addition to cutting the federal funds rate by a half point, the central bank also reduced its discount rate, the interest it charges in making direct loans to banks, by a half-point as well.

The Fed had also cut the discount rate on Aug. 17 as it scrambled to respond to the growing credit crisis.

In explaining its action Tuesday, the Fed said that "the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally."

Many analysts had predicted that Bernanke, who has been cautious since taking over as Fed chairman, would opt for a quarter-point move, the change in rates usually preferred by Greenspan.

But with this action, Bernanke appeared to be trying to surprise financial markets with a positive change after disappointing investors following the Aug. 7 meeting when he and fellow board members refused to change rates and still said inflation was the biggest threat facing the economy.

"Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time," the Fed said in a brief statement explaining its actions.

Analysts said rate cuts were certainly needed, given spreading weakness in housing, financial market turbulence and a bad August employment report which showed the labor market lost jobs for the first time in four years.

"We have a very soft economy and if the Fed doesn't lower rates then the economy could fall into a recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.

Zandi said he had trimmed his forecast to show economic growth of around 2.5 percent in the current quarter, down sharply from 4 percent growth rate in the April-June quarter. He said the fourth quarter is likely to be even weaker -- at around 1.5 percent.

Analysts believe the Fed has room to cut rates because inflation pressures have been easing. In good news on that front, the Labor Department reported Tuesday that wholesale prices fell by 1.4 percent in August. It was the biggest drop in 10 months and much larger than the 0.3 percent fall that had been expected.

Economists said they believed that Bernanke, who wrote extensively as an economics professor on the Great Depression that followed the 1929 stock market crash, understands what needs to be done to avert downturns.

"We have had a long history of financial panics and if we have learned anything, it is that you shove money at them," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

While some have complained that Bernanke has been more tentative than Greenspan would have been, no less an authority than Greenspan disagrees.

Doing a round of interviews to promote his new book, Greenspan, who was Fed chairman for 18 1/2 years, said Bernanke was "doing an excellent job" and he doubted that he would have done anything differently.

Greenspan told The Associated Press on Monday that the odds of a recession have grown since earlier this year, even though "the economy is not doing badly at this stage."

He put the odds of a recession at greater than one in three. "But best I can judge it is less than 50 percent," he said.

Greenspan's one-in-three prediction earlier this year rocked Wall Street.
 
Posted on 09-18-07 1:49 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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As expected!! If only you'd have gone out and done the necessary when I posted this last Thursday, you'd have boatloads of money now! Well too bad, next FOMC fed-funds rate decision comes out in Oct 31st and watch out for more rate cuts (the houses that saved the world as per the Economist 2-3 years ago, has ironically become its downfall)!!

http://www.sajha.com/sajha/html/OpenThread.cfm?forum=2&ThreadID=50771#490700
 
Posted on 09-18-07 2:07 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Hukka Ji,
Kata? I've lost touch with you and our other Nepali buddy. We used to chat. How's your portfolio doing these days with the ups and downs of the market?
What does that mean for th einterest rates to be lowered for people who're trying to invest on property, a house. How will impact us? Do we get better and lower mortgage rate? Cheaper houses?
Last edited: 18-Sep-07 02:07 PM

 
Posted on 09-18-07 2:13 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Hey samsara, i doubt if we will see any more rate cuts anytime....definitely in the next month's meeting IMO. half a precentage cut is more than what the big financial instituations were hoping for to ge themselves rescued from subprime and credit crunch fiasco.

bears had a pretty decent run over the summer so i can see bulls now using the same rhetoric as you mention above to continue this rally....heck i could actually use a little bullish outlook to gain back some of my profits i had to give the last few weeks. but i think fed will leave the rate unchanged for some time now and weigh in on the impact of their latest decision before they make their next move.
 
Posted on 09-18-07 2:25 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Hukka, I guess whats determining the Fed Funds these days is the US dollar and the Subprime fiasco (this is just the beginning as the forclosure numbers today/yesterday surpassed all expectations)...With no housing to boost the already ailing economy, the only thing remaining for these guys at the Fed is to increase Net Exports and revive the Stock market thats showing that all the economic indicators suck big time but because of this, I see the US manufacturing sector taking off pretty soon. Due to lower exchange rate, not much change in nominal economic indicators but overall, a bad year for the economy and the housing sector. All the more reasons for more rate cuts to remain globally competitive. However, will know better on this as we approach Oct 31st. All the best !!
 
Posted on 09-18-07 2:26 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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hello brother bob!! i'm sure all our nepali buddies are doing well and hope you are too. nba seasion is starting soon so gotta kick off the fantasy season here one of these days.

my portfolio was taking some hit as the market was feeling the sub-prime pain. hoping this rate cut to change all that and i can go back to making me mullahs

so you are thinking of buying a home? i don't think you can ever go wrong by investing in a property esp if you are going to use for yourself. i think it gets a little tricky once you start buying properties for investing (renting, etc). but it sounds to me like you are buying for yourself and i think the time is right too. the rate cut today should only help your cause and there are already some great bargains out there. there is also a huge tax incentive for owing a house.
 
Posted on 09-18-07 2:34 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Green span had warned yesterday not to cut rates 50 basis, It is interesting how bernanke is handling the situation.
There have been lot of research showing that fed had tighten too much in the past and that led to recession. But on the other side of the tightening was the ability of Greenspan or fed to burst bubbles ' like the ones in tech stocks. This loosening may not burst the housing bubble.
The housing market needs atleast 10% price reduction to qualify as a correction , i am not sure if that will be achieved soon. We might have to deal with this problem again. But again this is deviation from the Green Span era. It's interesting.
Yes there will be easy money days as a trader like the one today if you are in tuned but this is once in a blue moon day. It should not be taken as a time to jump.
 
Posted on 09-18-07 2:57 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Duke1, it might have been bernanke's way to tell greenspan shut up now you ole fart and i'd agree! greenspan opens his mouth way too much for a retired man. i don't think bernanke is any less of a scholar than greenspan, and it's his show now so he should be able to run it his way. and like you pointed out this whole subprime mess is the byproduct from greenspan's tenure anyways.

easy money for the day traders in these type of environment but the rate cut was needed for small invetors like us too as the subprime worries were spilling into our 401K, mutual funds, stocks, property, etc even though they weren't directly related to subprime woes.
 
Posted on 09-18-07 3:14 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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It is macro economic matter and the decision should not be based on invididual investor basis. The point is by doing this house prices may remain inflated it is only down 1-3% and that might lead to bigger problems in future. I don't think dealing with a bad loan is by reducing interest rates.
I hope this does not happen but i think inflation will hunt bernanke again. Just check oil i think it was at its all time high today.
 
Posted on 09-18-07 3:30 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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It has a negative impact though ..

It will decrease the rate between INR/USD : and u all know .. Nepali ruppes has constant balance with India .. so the money u send to Nepal From US will be less than before ..
 
Posted on 09-18-07 3:38 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Well on DOLLAR It is one way for next few quarters - Down. Yea that could affect exchange rates. But it helps U.S because it will help their exports and their revenue from international operation will be highter. It is actually good for U.S in the long run.
 


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