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View User Profile View User Postings BetterNepal Please log in to subscribe to BetterNepal's postings. Posted on 09-18-08 1:30 PM     Reply [Subscribe]

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The Prachanda Path By KUNDA DIXIT   KATMANDU, Nepal -- It may have been just a coincidence that a week after he was sworn in, Nepal's new Maoist prime minister was in Beijing Sunday for his first foreign visit. But for Nepalis, the visit had geopolitical meaning. Our leaders traditionally first go to New Delhi, our largest trading partner, after taking office. The picture of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal shaking hands with President Hu Jintao was splashed across all Nepali newspapers' front pages this week. Little wonder: Everyone's looking for signs about how this new government will behave. After a 12-year war, a fragile two-year peace process and a crippling food and fuel crisis, voters' expectations are high. They voted for the Maoists in April elections hoping they would usher in an era of peace and development. But Mr. Dahal may actually find that waging war was easier than delivering on his party's utopian promises. Mr. Dahal is still known here by his nom de guerre, Prachanda, which means "The Fierce One." He is the first Maoist in history to be voted in as head of state. The Maoists lead a shaky coalition with the United Marxist-Leninists (which despite its name is a moderate leftist party) and a regional party representing the Madhesi people of Nepal's eastern plains. The center-right Nepali Congress party decided to stay in the opposition. In their ambitious election manifesto, the Maoists promised among other things "revolutionary" land reform, basic health and education, an ethnicity-based federal state structure and a South Africa-style Truth and Reconciliation Commission to investigate war crimes. Overarching all this are their wild promises to deliver 20% GDP growth and $3,000 per-capita income by 2020, and to transform Nepal into a "Singapore." Mr. Dahal's more urgent challenge, however, is simply to provide economic relief. More than half of Nepal's population lives below the poverty line, hunger stalks the land and inflation is running at 20% for foodstuffs. The government can't afford to subsidize petroleum products and people have endured two years of long queues at gas stations. How well will the new government meet these challenges? Finance Minister Baburam Bhattarai, the Maoist party's chief ideologue, wants to launch large showcase projects that generate immediate employment. He has ambitious plans for a railway artery from east to west, investments in highways, hydropower and a new international airport. That alone won't be enough. The government needs to find jobs for the 450,000 Nepalis who enter the labor market every year. About half of them emigrate to find work every year, mostly to India, the Gulf states, Malaysia and South Korea. The Maoists realize job creation is not possible without foreign investment, and have tried to assure domestic business and the international community they will respect private property, encourage foreign direct investment and smooth labor relations. Yet investors aren't convinced. The Maoists' intimidating youth wing has a habit of extorting businesses. The Maoist threat to enforce a higher minimum wage for foreign-owned enterprises has already spooked multinationals in Nepal, as has the governing party's sponsorship of militant unionism and preferential treatment for domestic enterprises under its concept of "national capitalism." Despite these problems, it does look like Messrs. Dahal and Bhattarai are more in line with Deng Xiaoping than with Mao Zedong or the Gang of Four on the economy. However, there are hardcore Maoists in the ranks who think the leadership has sold out on the revolution. The leadership needs to keep this faction in check. The Maoist-led coalition's final challenge is to ensure political stability so that the 601-member Constituent Assembly that was elected in April can start drafting Nepal's new constitution. The transition from monarchy to republic in the past two years was delayed, but it went surprisingly smoothly. For that progress to continue, the government must integrate the Maoist army into the national army, while at the same time downsizing it. This will be the job of a former guerrilla commander, Ram Bahadur Thapa, who is now Defense Minister. Over the next two years, the constitutional framers will also have to grapple with how to divide the country into federal units, how much power over economic policy each unit should have and how the judiciary should function. These are all important questions in their own right. They will also affect the government's ability to address economic challenges. The road ahead is not easy. But the fact that Nepal has seen such far-reaching political transformation since 2006 without large outbreaks of violence and through political negotiations means that it could just pull it off. Mr. Dixit is editor of the Nepali Times. See all of today's editorials and op-eds, plus video commentary, on Opinion Journal View/Share this post only

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