It's not happening

It’s mid winter. There is no regular electricity, fuel, or water and it certainly does not look like Nepal’s political transition period is going to end soon. That this is one of the most testing times in recent Nepali history is clear with general public optimism at its lowest.

The Interdisciplinary Analyst, a research group, conducted a survey (Kantipur 9 January 2012), whose results indicated that the Nepali public has lost its trust in the political leadership. But one does not need a research study to understand the mood of the public. As we have done for ages, the common Nepali will bear it until it becomes unbearable. Our resilience to suffering has been perfected over time. We the people are a simple lot. For the common Nepali citizen, living the everyday life is a far greater challenge than debating over dogmas. We like to leave leading to the leaders but that does not mean we cannot think. This is where politicians are wrong and this is why this process is not going to have a very happy ending, as much as one would like it to.

There are a multitude of political impasses that must be resolved immediately if Nepal is to progress to a normal political cycle. That there is a strong ideological division within the Maoist party is evident. While it is upto the leadership to resolve its internal issues, one cannot but bear in mind the characteristic of communist parties to split over leadership itself because of the tendency to build the party around a personality cult. Prachanda might be successful in temporarily stalling the inevitable but for how long will depend a lot more on how much more he and his comrade in arms Prime Minister Bhattarai can bend down to India. The Madhesi Janadhikar Front taking back its support to the government is a warning by India.

Without there being a stable government there is no way that the peace process and the writing of the new constitution can be completed. We have seen political parties bickering over every other step in the peace process. Each may justify his own and all may never be happy but perhaps the solution is to look inward. Our problems lie in our integrity and we know Nepali leaders have none. Did the government and the UNMIN even think about the long term impact and the psychological damage labelling former Maoists combatants as “disqualified” could have caused? And even now they are still arguing about the integration process, which has still be resolved when the Madhesi leaders started demanding that a10,000 Madhesi youth be integrated into the national army. One wonders where the demand came from when no Madhesi youth have been barred from applying in the organization. In fact official records prove that even when the army held special drives to induct youth especially from the Madhesi community, more than one fourth of even the chosen ones chose not to join. Who are the Madhesi leaders trying to fool by demanding that it is the popular choice of the Madhesi community that 10,000 of their youth should be allowed to join the national army?

Will the peace process ever be complete without first creating and then allowing the Truth and Reconciliation Commission as well as the Commission for the Disappeared to function independently? For a while it might seem as though society has returned to normal but the agitation of the former Maoist combatants labeled “disqualified” by the UNMIN goes to prove this wrong. There is no saying if the unsatisfied youth will again pick up the gun, for they have been taught by their leaders that power comes from the barrel of the gun.   

The biggest challenge however will be in restructuring the state on a federal basis. The debate is not about why but how it should be done. No one can disagree that power must ultimately lie in the hands of the people. The question is how can it be done in a manner that meets the aim of devolution of power as well as keep the national identity and sovereignty intact. Here too political parties are now finding out that the process is much more difficult than it seems. Had they taken precaution before making great claims and showing big dreams it would have been easier now to convince the people. But now how can you blame the people for demanding what they believe is right?

Nepal’s transition period is not going to end anytime soon. We better brace ourselves for the long haul and put pressure on our politicians to shape up or prepare to be shipped out. Like it or not another peoples movement will slowly turn into a reality if the current lot of leaders don’t get their acts together. 

http://www.parakhi.com/blogs/2012/01/09/its-not-happening