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 India tiptoes in China's footsteps to compete but not offend
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Posted on 04-04-08 3:34 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Friday, April 4, 2008

NEW DELHI: Since protests against China broke out among the Tibetans who make their home in exile here, India has urged the Dalai Lama to refrain from talking politics and assured Beijing that the Olympic torch will pass unmolested when it arrives here this month.

That delicate stance has disappointed some, like the Dalai Lama, who has chided India as "overcautious." But it is just one leg of an emerging Indian approach to the world — one part caution, one part competition, with a dash of mimicry sprinkled in — that is ever mindful of the more powerful giant that has risen on its eastern flank.

The Tibetan issue is one thing. Perhaps more to the point was another, less noticed development this week, as the Indian prime minister warmly welcomed the second in command in Myanmar's junta, a general named Maung Aye, barely six months after a crackdown there on Buddhist monks.

Together they announced an Indian-financed project to refurbish a port, river and roads in Myanmar, a deal that may allow India to elbow its way into the plentiful energy reserves of a country that has become a virtual well of resources for Beijing.

Next week, lifting a page from the Chinese, India is scheduled to play host to an India-Africa summit meeting intended to bolster trade with mineral-rich Africa. It is all part of a push by India, like China, to scour the planet for natural resources to aid its growth.

But as the two emerging Asian giants engage in their own version of the Great Game, it is impossible for New Delhi to escape the reality that the playing field is badly skewed in China's favor, and hence the need for caution.

The planned Africa summit meeting, for instance, only highlights the vast gap between Indian and Chinese ambitions on the continent. Jairam Ramesh, the Indian minister of state for commerce, pointed out that a $640 million line of credit to Ethiopia was India's largest single loan to an African country; by comparison, he noted that China had extended a $13 billion line of credit to oil-rich Angola.

"We can't race with them at all," he said. "There's no point. They have left us behind."

That imbalance has forced New Delhi to walk a fine line between competing with China and challenging it.

"It is a new, evolving relationship. It's a fragile relationship," said Tarun Das, chief mentor of the Confederation of Indian Industry, one of the country's largest trade groups, and often the face of Indian business in the world. "We are going to be careful."

Indeed, these days Chinese and Indian interests coincide nearly as much as they divide. For one thing, China is on its way to surpassing the United States as India's largest trade partner. Although Indians worry about the trade imbalance — China mostly buys iron ore from India and sells a variety of consumer goods and auto parts — there are clearly now significant commercial stakes in the bilateral relationship.

At the same time, India's efforts to modernize its military are clearly done with an eye on China. In 1998, when India tested a hydrogen bomb, it said it needed a nuclear deterrent because of China. Today, New Delhi has fighter jets, air-to-air refueling capacity and transport ships that can help expand its reach across the Indian Ocean.

While Indian officials bristle at any suggestion that their country is being courted by Washington as a bulwark against the Chinese, the United States has aided that military buildup. India agreed this year to buy a half-dozen American-made cargo planes, worth about $1 billion. Last year the Indian Navy bought an American-made warship able to carry 450 soldiers across the seas. American companies are bidding to sell fighter jets to India worth $10 billion.

"The demands are really based on Chinese capability rather than anybody else's," said Dipankar Banerjee, a retired Indian Army major general who is director of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi. "We are keeping the China factor very much in mind."

As India and China try to find new footing with each other, they are mindful of the past. Relations between them remained suspended for 26 years, after a border war in 1962 in which India was quickly routed. The border dispute remains unresolved and is an occasional irritant.

Today, China is not only militarily and economically more powerful, but also holds important diplomatic cards. It can undermine India's efforts to garner nuclear technology through the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group, derail its ultimate ambition for a seat on the United Nations Security Council and strengthen rival Pakistan, which has long enjoyed Chinese support.

The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party has stepped up its criticism of the government in recent weeks, accusing it of appeasing China. While the government says India's China policy is the same as ever, there is no doubt that the "China factor" modulates India's position on the latest crisis over Tibet.

The Dalai Lama has lived in India since 1959, and he has been allowed to run a government in exile and minister to the needs of more than 100,000 Tibetan refugees in the country. On Thursday, India's government announced that the foreign minister, Pranab Mukherjee, had spoken to his Chinese counterpart the day before and reiterated New Delhi's position: It considers Tibet to be a part of China, treats the Dalai Lama as a spiritual leader and prohibits Tibetans to carry out anti-Chinese agitation on Indian soil.

As for the Olympic Games, Mukherjee, according to the External Affairs Ministry Web site, "conveyed that government of India will take the necessary measures to ensure that the passage of the Olympic torch is a success."

An Indian soccer player, Bhaichung Bhutia, has already refused to carry the torch when it comes to the capital in two weeks.

The actor Aamir Khan has posted a note on his blog saying he will carry it with a prayer for Tibet. The Indian Olympic Association said the Olympic torch relay would be shortened out of concern for security, according to The Press Trust of India. The details of the route have not been announced.

At Beijing's request, the authorities have fortified security around the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi, though it was not enough to stop Tibetan protesters from scaling a wall last week and unfurling banners inside the compound.

With the Olympic Games in August still months away, the events of recent weeks may only presage an even trickier passage for India in the days ahead. On Thursday, in the heart of the capital, Tibetans and Burmese crisscrossed each other, echoing each other's protests.

"We want democracy," the Burmese shouted.

And then: "Long Live Dalai Lama."



 


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