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An overlooked peace pie

By SHIVA GAUTAM

- At a time when a new age of democracy and freedom is dawning elsewhere, armed conflict between absolute monarchy and obsolete Maoism in Nepal seems anachronism.
Despite volumes of seminars, articles, theories and hypotheses, solution to this complex problem has remained elusive, and prospects of peaceful living have remained a wishful thinking for the bewildered Nepali people.

So long as the Maoists and the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) point guns at each other and at civilians, there will be no real solution. Several proposed solutions are on the table, but most of them either focus only on a political solution or seem to be an ad hoc response to concerns raised by a particular party involved in the conflict while ignoring other party's concerns.

It is not the purpose of this article to prepare a list of such suggestions and analyze or criticize them point by point. But those proposals seem to lack something concrete that is likely to convince the Maoists to honestly return to non-violent politics and normal living.

The alliance of seven political parties is reported to have been exploring possibilities of working with the Maoists towards a lasting peace. A simple statement in the newspaper asking the Maoists to give up arms and join the ongoing street protests or participate in general elections will not make the Maoists just do that.

What can the political parties offer to the Maoists? Just an offer of constitutional assembly may not stop them from marching toward a communist state. Many believe that their primary enemy is monarchy and secondary enemy is democracy and democratic forces. They may collaborate with the secondary enemy to get rid of the primary one, and once done with the primary enemy, they would go after the secondary.

Similarly, what can the political parties offer to the RNA and the palace? Like the Maoists, the palace might be looking for a strategy to take on the Maoists, and then later at a convenient time it may turn against democratic forces (more forcefully, than now, with an intention to annihilate the democratic forces from the country).

Here is what political parties and civil society can offer to the Maoists and the palace.

To the Maoists

First of all, democratic forces must convince the Maoists that they may have the ability to prolong the current insurgency, but will not be able to win the country completely. But for a moment, even if it is assumed that they come to power they will not be able to hold on to it for long. The simple reason is: they too have to build hospitals, schools, roads, water treatment plants, and will have to provide telephone, electricity and other essential services to the people. Where are the resources for all these? Nepal does not own its own resources and infrastructure, and Maoists will be completely isolated by the international community. They are already isolated now, and even China does not support them. So in few years after they come to power people will revolt against them as they will not be able to deliver.

Furthermore, sooner or later people will reject any imposed system in favor of democracy as desire to be free is a basic instinct. And the world around us is a living proof of it.

Political parties working with the international community need to estimate the resource that could be available if peace were to return. Instead of projecting figures, there should be a tentative commitment from the various agencies to jump start economic activities in the country. In addition to other reasonable social and political incentive, the economic incentive both for short- term and long-term must be included in the over-all peace package.

The party leaders, mediators and negotiators should not only mention this fact as passing notes, interviews or in talk programs but need to remind and convince Maoists over and over again. Not only the Maoist party leaders but even their cadres should understand that they made their point and now time has come to think about the above scenarios and alternatives.

To the RNA and palace

The same argument applies to the RNA and palace. Many experts have suggested that there is no military solution to the problem. As the regime becomes more autocratic and takes away people's democratic rights piece by piece, it too eventually will be completely isolated exactly the same way as the Maoists would be isolated if they ever come to power.

If active monarchy was the answer to the problems of a troubled country, then a lot of countries would either establish monarchy or would revert back to it. Brilliant minds all over the world would have postulated theories and philosophies taking its practicality and utility to new heights.

Of course a multifaceted problem needs a multifaceted solution. The proposed solution covers only an often-overlooked aspect and needs to be coordinated with other relevant aspects. A strong and tangible (not rhetoric) economic plan aimed both at immediate and long-term relief must be included in any peace package

Can the political parties, in coordination with civil society and international community including the UN, execute these strategies? Can they regain the trust of people, by taking the country out the current quagmire? It, however, is the million-dollar question.

(The writer is a faculty at Harvard University)