Washington has hardly swept up the confetti and empty bottles left over from the celebrations and commiserations of Election Day 2006, but the race for the White House two years from now has already begun.
George W Bush is barred by law from seeking a third term, and Vice-President Dick Cheney has said he will not stand, so officially, the field is unusually wide open.
But in fact, each party has a clear front-runner: John McCain for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats.
Both already have organisations in place and are raising funds, and both have reason to smile after the 2006 results.
Sen McCain - although he is a Republican - is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the voters' swing against President Bush, since he has staked out a clear contrast between himself and the president, political scientist Larry Sabato says.
"It's obvious that a Bush look-alike will have great trouble winning in 2008," says Mr Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Mr McCain also worked hard this year, although he was not up for re-election himself, Mr Sabato adds.
"He got around. He helped other candidates raise money, but he also raised money for himself and got commitments from people."
War chest
That's true too of Mrs Clinton, at least in the fund-raising stakes. Facing an opponent whom no-one doubted she could beat, she banked enormous sums, finishing the campaign with twice as many votes as her rival - and $20m left over.
Her victory speech was "presidential in style", Mr Sabato says, but he does not rate her 2008 chances overly highly.
"She doesn't have charisma. She is a wooden public speaker, giving a pedestrian address on election night," he said.
He is not the only one with his doubts about the former first lady. Many Democrats fear she is too divisive a figure ever to win a national election.
Many Republicans, meanwhile, have their doubts about Mr McCain, either because he has opposed the president on high-profile issues or because they do not think he is sufficiently conservative on social values.
'Anybody but ...'
So for many in each party, the question now is: If not the front-runner, then who?
Several men who had been positioning themselves as conservative alternatives to Mr McCain had bad nights as 2006 results came in.
Mitt Romney, the outgoing governor of Massachusetts, had chaired the Republican Governors' Association.
His party lost six governors' mansions - including Mr Romney's own.
"He was in charge of millions of dollars which went to losing candidates, and there was a massive landslide against his lieutenant governor," Mr Sabato points out.
The outgoing governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, also failed to keep his job in Republican hands.
Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas saw the Democrats make strong gains in his conservative state, casting doubt on his campaigning abilities.
But the Republican who self-destructed most dramatically was Senator George Allen of Virginia.
Considered a strong candidate for the Republican nomination to the presidency only three months ago, he ended up losing his own re-election battle after a comment seen as racially insensitive.
Botched joke
Across the aisle, Democratic Senator John Kerry - the loser in 2004 - may well also have destroyed any lingering presidential chances this year.
He made a comment which the Republicans portrayed as an insult to the US military, and although he insisted it was a botched joke aimed at President Bush, it would be dangerous ammunition against him if he ran for president again.
Many other Democrats will expect their chances to have been boosted by the party's storming into control of both the House and Senate for the first time in more than a decade.
Senator Joseph Biden is in line to become chair of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, giving him a platform to look presidential as he seeks a bipartisan solution to the Iraq imbroglio.
Senator Evan Bayh helped the Democrats to pick up three House seats in his conservative state of Indiana, reinforcing his image as a vote-winner in Republican territory.
Beyond race?
And Senator Barack Obama's stock continues to rise and rise.
Adoring crowds turned out to cheer for him as he campaigned on behalf of candidates such as Jim Webb, who captured George Allen's Virginia Senate seat.
Not everyone is convinced of America's willingness to elect a black man to the White House, but elections expert David Bositis thinks Mr Obama can overcome any lingering prejudice.
He concedes that Harold Ford, the season's highest-profile African-American candidate, lost a Senate race in Tennessee, but observes that Mr Ford took 40% of the white vote in a Southern state.
"That might not sound like a lot, but it is," says Mr Bositis, of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
And he says the Republicans could never run the kind of negative commercial against Mr Obama that they ran against Mr Ford, which played to racist fears of mixed-race sexual relations.
"Obama is the perfect family man, with a beautiful wife and children straight out of the Saturday Evening Post", the home of Norman Rockwell's idealised images of Middle America.
He thinks the Democrats as a party boosted their chances of winning in 2008 on election night in 2006.
"They were winning big in some places where they had not in the past. In the overall landscape, Obama probably saw quite a bit to like. All the Democrats would be smiling."
But Larry Sabato is more cautious.
"The Democrats have the image of being winners now, but you can lose by winning. If the wingnuts [crazies] take over, voters may decide to check the Democratic Congress with a Republican president in 2008."
Do you know what that means? It means legalization of abortion, more feminine rights, legalization of lesbian marriage (no gay marriage).....the list goes on.....
hey captain, nothing much dude - just as usual. how is it hanging? hahaha :P
well, giuliani's well-earned reputation for aptitude and proficiency can serve him well with swing voters who have lost faith in bush's competency. republican belt aside, i believe, he could even be that rare republican able to bring into play the overwhelmingly democratic states of california and new york. there was this article which says that the domination of democrats in the mid-terms will prove more advantageous to the republican centrists, so yeah he holds a great chance.
however, saddled with some 7(?) million divorce settlement, he has been digging out of debt through the work of his consulting firm (giuliani partners LLC ) and through speaking engagements around the country. the fact that he is allegedly out of step with the republican base on hot-button social issues may turn out to be less of a liability than is routinely assumed though. gay rights may no longer be quite the third rail among republicans that it was even a few short years ago. it remains to be seen how he deals with this issue and with abortion and immigration. i hope he does not project himself as another filp-flip presidential candidate :P
i am all up for hilary clinton though, yeahhhhh!! that will be nice for a change, isn't it? i am a big fan of clinton clan :P
yeah ... that was funny. As was the section on gay marriage ban failing in Arizona ... voters more scared of Republicans continuing than two men humping in their neighbohoods ...LOL!
here's an interview of the man, rudy guiliani, a cancer patient. although not much relevant, i am putting this up here to give an idea about how he stood against an odd in his life. he is a great character, for sure!
Rice is the top ranked administration official who hasn’t ruled out a run. The architect of Afghanistan’s and Iraq’s freedom.
Condoleezza Rice is the 66th United States Secretary of State. She became Secretary of State on January 26. 2005. Prior to becoming Secretary of State, Dr. Rice served as Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, commonly referred to as the National Security Advisor.
Rice also served in the administration of the first President Bush as Director and Senior Director of Soviet and East European Affairs in the National Security Council, and a Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. She also served in the State Department in 1977, during the Carter administration, as an intern in the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs.
Rice was a tenured Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, Senior Fellow of the Institute for International Studies, and a Fellow (by courtesy) of the Hoover Institution. From 1993 to 1999, she served as Provost of Stanford University. She also served on the board of numerous corporations and foundations including Charles Schwab and Chevron.
Rice was born in Birmingham, Alabama on November 14, 1954. Her father was a guidance counselor and Presbyterian minister. Her mother was a teacher.
Rice holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Denver, which she received cum laude at the age of 19. She has a master’s degree from the University of Notre Dame and a Ph.D. from the Graduate School of International Studies at the University of Denver.
Rice has said that her major career goal is to be Commissioner of the National Football League. She is an accomplished classical pianist and in addition to English, she speaks Russian, French, and Spanish.
Democrats those will seek nomination 1. Harry Reid 2. Barak Obama <<== dark horse. ran a successful House campaign for democrat. could win nomination. But may be pushed aside since he is YOUNG (O: 3. Christopher Dodd 4. Hillary Clinton <<== very tough. she might will all the blue states but no acceptance in the south. Democrat will lose 2008 if she is nominated. 5. Joseph Biden 6. John Edwards <<=== i think he will be the democratic nomination. will win massive landside if democrat nomination. but may opt out
Republicans: 1. Bill Frist <<=== potential nomination [ consevative] 2. Rudy Giuliani <<=== would b a gr8 president but will fail to get the rep. nomination due to his stand. he is a middle of the line republican a sore eye to conservative, evangelist rep. who forms the base of rep. party. 3. John Mccain <<=== same as above[2]. is like rudy and lot softer. do not have a chance. 4. George Allan <<=== potential nomination although he lost VA senate race. since it was close and was due to his own blunder (O: about racial slur. but i think he is a conservative choice 5. Rick Santorum 6. Mick Roomney (sp) ma governor
my prediction. if they choose John Edwards democrats will win by a landslide. if they choose hillary then republican candidate will win.
Its very unlikely Rudy or John Mccain will get nomination. even if they do they will be able to get lot of independent votes but will lose the CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN support. thus the competing candidate will win.
time will tell (O:
===================================================== as always what do i know (O:
Loote, HOW MANY MODERATE or your so called republican centrist WON IN MIDTERM??
please go back and take a look or count. I will give you a HINT. NADA!!!!!!
what does that prove... there is no place for MODERATE or CENTRIST in REPUBLICAN party (O:
but i may be proved wrong in time. Lets see. If past is any trend for future then i will be proved correct. ======================================================= once again what do i know (O:
Who knows maybe Mitt Romney or Bill Frist have secret gay lovers! :)That might then clear the field for Guiliani or MCCain but, on a serious note, I agree the moderates in any party have the hardest time in the primaries.
Yeah, ironic, init? If you are not a Southern Baptist or a Methodist or one of the other Protestant denominations, your chances of winning the evangelical vote get slimmer. I heard a comment on the radio the other day that Hillary Clinton the United Methodist may fare better in the South amongst the religious right than Romney the Mormon! The other irony is all the states where diversity is more valued, where his religion might actually have been an advantage, like say Massachusetts where he was governor, tend to vote blue anyways.
though politically moderate-to-left on some social issues, giuliani may be palatable to the voters for the simple reason that he is viewed as a man of courage, conviction, and leadership. and there is always time to modify one's stance, as long as you have a rationale for the modification. so let's wait and see, i am doing that too :P
TPS Reregistration and EAD Approval Timeline.......
NOTE: The opinions
here represent the opinions of the individual posters, and not of Sajha.com.
It is not possible for sajha.com to monitor all the postings, since sajha.com merely seeks to provide a cyber location for discussing ideas and concerns related to Nepal and the Nepalis. Please send an email to admin@sajha.com using a valid email address
if you want any posting to be considered for deletion. Your request will be
handled on a one to one basis. Sajha.com is a service please don't abuse it.
- Thanks.
.png)
