Former Maoist guerrillas on brink of historic Nepal election victory
· Rebels upstage political rivals as royal dynasty ends
· We are committed to democracy, says leader
Randeep Ramesh, South Asia correspondent
-
The Guardian,
- Monday April 14 200
Former communist rebels in Nepal appear to be on the brink of a
historic sweep in elections that will decide the political future of
the Himalayan nation and end the rule of its 239-year-old royal dynasty.
The
Maoists' party has won 42 seats and is leading in 58 constituencies,
the election commission said in a statement on its website. The
traditional politicians, who had expected to win the polls, have been
reduced to bit-part players.
The country's oldest and biggest
political party, the Nepali Congress, has so far won 13 seats and the
Unified Marxist-Leninists, the traditional communist party, had just 14
seats in the latest count.
The vote is the culmination of a peace
process that began in 2006 when street protests ended the absolute rule
of King Gyanendra.
In the political deal that followed, Maoist
guerrillas agreed to a end their 10-year insurgency, which claimed
almost 14,000 lives, and enter a UN-sponsored disarmament programme.
The guerrillas also returned to politics, shaping pre-election
agreements such as the one to abolish the monarchy.
Last week's
polling was largely peaceful and more than 60% of the country's 17
million voters cast a ballot. International observers, including the
former US president Jimmy Carter, hailed the election as "free and
fair".
Analysts say the Maoists proved more than a match for
politicians, using a sly mix of propaganda and carefully calibrated
street muscle to win over voters fed up with "politics as usual".
"The
Maoists promised the Earth to poor, marginalised people and also ran a
country-wide campaign of fear and intimidation to win the elections,"
said Kanak Mani Dixit, editor of Himal magazine. "I thought they would
only get 12 seats but I am eating humble pie today. Everybody
underestimated them."
Thanks to the complicated electoral system
for the 601-seat assembly, which relies on a mix of first past the post
and proportional representation, the final results of the poll will not
be known for weeks. There are also caste and gender quotas designed to
give the new assembly a more representative appearance.
The
Maoists want a presidential system to replace the monarchy, which would
mean the rebels' founder Comrade Prachanda or Pushpa Kamal Dahal would
become the country's supreme leader.
On Saturday Prachanda, whose
rebel nom de guerre means "the fierce one", won a seat in the capital
Kathmandu. He told reporters the Maoists were "committed to the peace
process and multi-party democracy and to rebuild this country."
However,
experts say a decisive win for the Maoists would be potentially
destabilising for the region. In their manifesto, they called for
scrapping all major treaties, especially those with New Delhi, and
stopping the recruitment of Nepali Gurkhas in British and Indian
armies. The US still lists the Maoists as a "terrorist" group.
"We
have some big issues here. The United States and India are not going to
be comfortable with a Nepal dominated by Maoists," said Yubaraj
Ghimire, editor of Samaya newspaper. "I can see a serious problem if
the Maoists try to force their soldiers into the Nepalese army. It is
what they want but nobody else does."
source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/14/tibet