Wouldn't it be nightware if US invade China as it did to Iraq? I believe US action itself will be sucidal. Matter of fact, clash cannot be undertaken lightly, it may happen. Even though cold war is over, there is new coldness between Washigton and Beijing. I am wondering ..

1. Can US overcome against 2 millions soldiers ?

2. How effective will US airstikes be ?

3. Are American nukes turn to be pros in long run against chinese ?

4. What would be the role of Nepal ? hehehehe

pisces,
timro topic, eventhough embarked into interesting territory, the questions u've raised is
utterly unsubstantial. Why would america invade china in the first place?
i think the more argumentative question would be as to what the new-new world order be in 20-30 yrears when china( as predicted) would regain its status as a ecomonic superpower.. ( or maybe it wont).. and if it does, how would it translate into military affairs of the world??
i 'd love to hear some thoughts from u folks out there
cheers!!

Eyefusion,

I use wrong jargon " an invasion" suppose to be "an attack"..It is just my assumption. I have solid groud to predict that "why not it won't happen".. Our father hadn't thought America will ever go after Iraq and Afganisthan, when American was pretty much involved supporting either of those facist regime. we cannot avoid the fact America brought Saddam and Osama to the power. Now picture is totally different. Incase of China, inspite of both countries' diplomatic efforts to nullify the conflict, fact is they are foe.

If war ever breakout the reason will be Taiwan - one and only reason. In many occasion China has urged that Chinese at any terms and condition will neither tolerate Taiwan independence activities nor will allow outside intervention. Here outsider is none other than US. Will US step out of the picture if Chinese approachs Taiwanese sovereignity ?

US is well aware of Chinese military modernization, its 2 digits increment in defense spending and weaponary deals with Russian, which may results havoc to tiny land and US itself. US and other westerner intelligence doubted Chinese has sought relation with Iranian, may have energy deals in exchange of WMD. The consequences could be catastrophic. Don't you think?

Seems to us, Chinese is out of scene from present power battle among the different countries but something, somewhere there is a consipiracy going on. Conclusion if war ever break out US will be doomed in the First Place.

i dont consider myself an expert on china issue on any level, but to me, it seems a little bit of an exaggeration when u say china and usa are foes.. competitors? definitely!!
taiwan issue is definitely a hot issue.. but i think its soo hot that i dont think anyone(china, usa,or taiwan itself) would want to get burnt from it anytime soon. but does this mean the fight wont ever break out? definitely not.
But personal opinions aside, the fact is china cannot be put in the same category as iraq and afghanistan.. infact, china can no more be put in the same category as many other better faring countries of the world in terms of world-influence (or atleast perceived world-influence). it has already acquired a unique position & recognition and, if predictions are of any indication, theres more of it comming.
I guess i am not here to argue so much as to who will win if war breaks out btn china and the us , but rather i am writing this so that i can get a more broad angle view from other readers who are familiar in china issue.

I think US might attack china if bush gets re-elected. If boosh ever attack china, he might use this map.

Oops the map is not clear enough. In second thought, US might first attack all the china-towns within US and bush would say," Chinese ppl! you can run but you cannot hideeeeeeeeee!" Just like he said to osama and Kerry.

Eyefusion:

You term foes as competitors, to me it is more related to Economic hurdles than political conflicts. Like you, I am not an expert either but recently I am little interested to scratch out causes and issues for the conflicts and the possible conflicts.

To me, if Am and Chinese both put aside their differences and try to resolve it at diplomatic level, conflict could be avoided. But who will initiate ? Will China give up its imperialist attitude not to include Taiwan in its mainland or will America pull out its military base from tiny island ? Which is likely to happen? None..

You said , "But personal opinions aside, the fact is china cannot be put in the same category as iraq and afghanistan.." you absolutely right.. But conflicts between China and American is neither can put on same catagory as those conflicts between American and its Muslim evil. the Relation is even more severe between these two powers, Taiwan being a sandwich. They are in verge of "anything may happen" -- good or bad. Lets wait and see my friend.

As i was paying my daily homage to nytimes.com,i came across a piece of news that affirmed what i had always suspected .That, the united states would in no way fight china for taiwan.
Thank you u_day for your map and its arrows, but being the least cynical i'll tell u, those arrows reminded me of the attacks staged on Gulliver's Travel :).


Warnings by Powell to Taiwan Provoke a Diplomatic Dispute
By JOSEPH KAHN

Published: October 28, 2004


EIJING, Oct. 27 - Chinese officials praised Secretary of State Colin L. Powell on Wednesday for warning Taiwan that it is not an independent nation and should not seek to become one. But Taiwanese leaders sharply criticized Mr. Powell for changing a longstanding policy in managing the diplomatically nuanced rivalry.
......
i am not going to post the whole article. if u'd like to read the whole version, here's the link.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/28/international/asia/28taiwan.html

Somebody's taking Strategic Studies class this semester? :-)

Well, here's my views on the issue.

I don't see US and China going to war over Taiwan issue. The US does not recognize Taiwan as a country "enjoying independent status." This has been the US policy since 1972. Article 12 of the Shanghai Comminuque states in a vague diplomatic language that Taiwan is a part of China: "The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves". This acknowledgement on the US part that there is only one China (Zhi You Yi ge ZhongGuo), has been the US policy since 1972. However, for some time, it was difficult for the US to totally chage its position on Taiwan because of a strong Taiwan lobby. However, with the growing trade/investemnet and China's development have somehow made the Taiwanese lobby weak. For example, the US did not support Chen Sui Bian's refereendum held earlier this year. Just day before yesterday, Collin Powell reiterated the official US line on Taiwan in Beijing, in an interview given to Phoenix Channel that the US does not recognize Taiwan as a country enjoying independednt status.


Although, US will keep its bases in Asia-Pacific for a long time, it will not interfare directly even if there is a war between Taiwan and China. The US will look for a peaceful way to resolve this issue, just like the Chinese leadership. As far as my own thinking goes, US will support a pro-unification candidate/party. And when that party/candidate wins the elections, the US can ask the party/cadinate to negotiate with China on the terms for unification- one country two systems/date-year/political systems and things like that. This seems to be the US strategy and which is good.

Sino-US relations is more of a strategic partnership than traditional diplomatic relations. At the height of Cold War, both needed each other to counter the Soviet threat. Now they need each other to resolve the N.Korean issue. A strong China poses less threat to America than a weak China.

Everything's pretty good now. The US is not demonizing China the way it used to. Fairbank wrote in the 50s, "One billion people can't be wrong." And after 50 years, the Americans are realizing this. Except for occasional ceremonial rants on Human Rights, the US government does not "advises" or "criticizes" the Chinese. Also, America and China have never fought each other in China. America didn't attack China even when China was vulnerable to extrenal attacks during the end of the Qing Dynasty. And I don't think America will want to go to war with China now. Of course America has a strategic advantage, i.e, its ICBMs (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles) can be repositined/relocated and launced in a matter of mins, where as it will take a little extra time for the Chinese to reposition and launch theirs, but the thing is, both have ICBMs with nuclear war-heads. This means, if America strikes one, China will strike back. The result, heavy causalties on both sides. Even if there's a ground war, the casualties on either side will be huge, and neither China nor America wants that.

I totally agree with Iso. freak. As for relocating ICBMs' US is able to do within 3 hrs where as for china the reading is 3-4 days.
peace and love

Eyefusion,

The US had made it clear sincde 1972 that it will not fight with China for Taiwan. Taiwan is a complex issue. It was under the Qing control before the Japanese took over. In 1945, when the Japanese withdrew, the province "legally" returned to China, that's why Jiang Jie Shi (Chiang Kai-Shek, in Wades-G romanization), went to Taiwan after the 8th Route Army lead by Marshall Peng Dahuai took over Beijing. Chian Kai-Shek believed that he would be able to fight the CCP from Tawian, and he considered his regime to be the legitimate regime of the whole China. For Chiang, Taiwan was more of a base, or a war time capital, as Nanjing had been. And this is one of the reasons he re-named Taiwan Zhonghua Min Guo (Republic of China), where as the CCP renamed the Mainland "Zhong Hua Ren Min Gong He Guo" (The People's Republic of China). Taiwan in the past considered itself a legitimate governmnet for China, than an independent country. And more than half of the Taiwanese, because of their historical and cultural links, tend to think themselves more as Chinese than Taiwanese. Of course, you can say that there's a Hakka majority and a group that speaks Fukkian than mandarin, but in Mainland there exists 56 ethnic groups with their own dialects! The US knew this, but in its drive against communism in the early years of the Cold War, they supported the Chiang regime, not as an independent country but as the "legitimate governmnet of China". After Nixon's historic world changing week-long trip to the PRC in 1972, the US cut its bilateral diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and established the ties with Mainland, symbolizing that the US now officially recongnizes the governmnet in Beijinga s the sole legitimate goverbnmnet of all of China, including Taiwan. The US then started to treat Taiwan as a province of China, something along the line of HK, and that it should eventually re-unite with the mainland.

uday, 4 a simpleton like me that map was a scary defination of reality. u missed out the base in the united states of philippinnes.

Strong post Isolate, thanx for that. But Your justification is somewhat based on early 80s memorandum of Sino-US relation. There have be many changes ever since, like Trade sanction, Massive american interference in Taiwan-China issue, military co-operation to Taiwan, ongoin military deployement in Twain Straits, so on so forth. I believe there is still a buggy road for normal diplomatic relation. At present scenario US is trying possible way to bring things to normal because they know CHINA will play vital role by hosting N. Korea issue. At such a verge of wouldbe explosion at the korean penensula, US cannot play with yet another Fire.

Powell statements is as comprehensive but complex as well, and he noted that as well. Yes, he said American believes in one-China but he put big "BUT" and said United States should ensure that Twain should be able to defend itself. If American ethically support one-China, why they want Taiwan to defend its sovereignty ? Why not US help China for peacefully reunification ?

u know, i was hoping to lure isolated freak into this thread since its inception having known his academic focus is china affairs from previous sajha thread.
welcome abroad iso!
eventhough, i ( along with other visitors) think military aggression between china and the united states is unlikely, i am struck by the last paragraph posted by pisces.
what does it mean when the united states, the country that rejects an independent taiwan , says taiwan should be able to defend itself??

Pisces, nice points.

Here's me again with my views.

1. America wants a strong China. Any instability in China will greatly affect the whole world. American policy since 1972 has been to avoid any action that would affect the terrirtorial integrity and stability of China. This is why the CIA stopped its Tibet operations. According to David Sambaugh of GW University, a fairly reputed China scholar in the US when it comes to contemporary issues, " For the United States, it is also important that China remain united and effectively governed.S imilarly, as China's terretorial and national security is vital to Asian security and stability, it is also central to US national interests. A China that is secure from foreign threat or coercion, can adequately defend itself, and can protect its legitimate soverignty is good for both Asian and American interests.

So, the US national interests lie in a secure China, not a weak one. A united China, not a divided one.

2. Why Does the US support Taiwan?
This is a very difficult question to answer. Let me try, I might be totally wrong, and if any of you correct me or pinpoint the errors in my answer, I would highly appreciate that.

The US has Taiwan-Relations act, so it has to make sure that "Taiwan maintains adequate defense." This is why the US is selling arms, despite the joint-China-US communique of 1992 on arms sales to Taiwan. Taiwan is a very sensetive issue for the US, because it cannot just drop its once-important ally, nor it can openly antagonize China. During the cold war, and during the early 90's, the US was trying to balance its relations with China and Taiwan. With China's rising economy, its growing defense capability and recently with N Korean issue, the China side greatly outweighs the Taiwan side. The US is more tilting towards China. Its impossible for any country to change its position overnight, so the US is slowly changing its policy on Taiwan. The recent referrendum in Taiwan was not supported by the US. And Taiwan without a strong US backing will never declare independence or go to war with mainland. And the US support for either independence or war with mainland is not in the coming. The US will try to keep things as it is now, and at the same time, look for peaceful ways to resolve this issue. It will in no event support Taiwan's independence or militarily support Taiwan if there is a war between China and Taiwan. China-Taiwan war will not only affect China-Taiwan but the whole of East and South-East Asia, and even America and Europe. And as I wrote earlier, a strong China is desired by the US so that the strategic partnership forged during the Nixon-Mao years still remains, and it can effectively deal with the North Korean, Central Asian Republics issues.

Also, Taiwan-China is less of a concern in the US academia/strategic studies circle these days. Now-a-days, people are more concerned about China-Japan relations. The historical tensions etc aside, in 20 years time, it will be the first time in the history of Asia that China and Japan will be equally powerful. This is why Japan is tring to recreate its Army, and the Chinese have enough legitimate reasons to show their concerns regarding this recent Japanese tilt towards militarism. And not only China, Korea too has enough reasons to show its concerns towards Japanese bid to recreate its army. If the Japanese succeed in ammending their constitution, then believe me, the threat to Asian and American national interests wouldn't come from China-Taiwan or even North Korea, it will come from Japan. And this was clearly highlighted [not Japan becoming a threat to Asia though, that's my own interpretation. He said something along the line that: If Japan and China are equally powerful economic and defense wise, then that would create a problem. I believe that he was hinting the possible course of Japanese actions based on Japan's not-so-distant history] in a lecture given by a Prof. of SAIS of JHU, which was published in one of this year's issues of Foreign Affairs.

Also, there is the issue of Central Asian Republics with nukes from the former Soviet Empire. They are more prone to poverty and power wars due to resources and other issues. They need to be checked-and-balanced and the only way for the US to do this is by not antagonizing China.

Eyefusion, you were right. As a student of Chinese affairs, I tend to share my views on China, whenever I can. K garney, its the only thing I have some vague ideas of..

Here's the full article, in case you haven't registered for the NY Times. Powell said it,"Taiwan bu shi yi ge du li guo jia" - "Taiwan is not an independent country." And I think Mr. Powell didn't go against the State Department and its policies. This has been the policy all along.


Warnings by Powell to Taiwan Provoke a Diplomatic Dispute
By JOSEPH KAHN

Published: October 28, 2004


EIJING, Oct. 27 - Chinese officials praised Secretary of State Colin L. Powell on Wednesday for warning Taiwan that it is not an independent nation and should not seek to become one. But Taiwanese leaders sharply criticized Mr. Powell for changing a longstanding policy in managing the diplomatically nuanced rivalry.


The reactions came after Mr. Powell, speaking in two television interviews on Monday during a brief visit to Beijing, emphasized that Taiwan was not a sovereign nation and that the United States favored its "peaceful reunification" with China.

The comments - which Mr. Powell carefully avoided repeating Wednesday in Washington - went beyond the ambiguous language American officials had used for several decades in managing relations between China and Taiwan. The United States has recognized China's claim that there is only "one China," including Taiwan, but has not explicitly backed reunification and has emphasized that any change in the status quo must come only when people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait agree to terms.

While State Department officials insisted that the secretary's comments did not reflect a change in United States policy, both China and Taiwan, sensitive to every accent and inflection in the American approach, reacted strongly.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry official, speaking in a telephone interview, called the comments "helpful and constructive." Separately, Zhang Mingqing, a spokesman for Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a news briefing on Wednesday that the comments addressed a Chinese complaint about American policy.

"Some people have said Powell made a slip of the tongue, but I don't think so," Mr. Zhang said.

Taiwan, a democratic enclave that has long relied on American military and political support, reacted with surprise and anger. Foreign Minister Chen Tan-sun called Mr. Powell's comments the "toughest statement" the United States had made since it switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.

Speaking on Tuesday, Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's president, lashed out at Mr. Powell. "Taiwan is absolutely a sovereign and independent country," Mr. Chen told the local news media. "It does not belong to the People's Republic of China."

The spat came as a surprise. American officials had recently praised Mr. Chen for offering to resume talks with China. Mr. Powell had been expected to press China to offer some reciprocal gesture to reduce tensions.

Instead, Mr. Powell seemed determined either to send a fresh warning to Taiwan or to strengthen relations with the mainland, or both.

Speaking in an interview with Phoenix Television of Hong Kong, Mr. Powell expanded on America's "one China'' policy when he said: "There is only one China. Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation."

Taiwan is formally called the Republic of China, a name left over from the time when the Nationalist Party governed all of China. The United States had not in the past explicitly rebutted Taiwan's claim of sovereignty as the Republic of China.

In a separate interview, with CNN, Mr. Powell also changed the diplomatic code used to discuss the outcome of any talks between the rival governments. "We want both sides not to take unilateral action that would prejudice an eventual outcome, a reunification that all parties are seeking," he said.

In the past, American officials had not endorsed China's contention that the goal should be reunification, which China insists it will achieve "at any price," including war.

Isolate thanx again for putting great deal of informations and for your intelligent analysis. I am convinced. By the way I read Powell interview already. Can you please hightlight little bit on --

how will Tawainese act on this issue. However Taiwanese already reacted with discomfort on Powell statement. Yes it is justifiable that Taiwan ain't do nothing without being backed by US, but how will Taiwan remains firm as it has been claiming itself absolute sovereign nation?

Will it just remain thug-of-war between China and Taiwan or Taiwan will give up its headstrong attitude ?

Let say if Taiwan doesn't give up, will US abandon Taiwan for the rest of the consequences ?

If US is positive about one-China, what will be tentative year of reunification ?

First off, I am just a layman but I beg to differ with IF's views, not in its entirety but more on the essence of it; which I *think*, if I am not mistaken, is that the US has the best intentions for China.

First of all, I doubt America would be very pleased to see its supremacy and global influence challenged from any quarters, least of all from China. Unless both the countries have been putting on an act, everyone knows that China and the US are not the best of friends. They don't see eye to eye on a number of issues. Infact, America would not be too fond of Europe stepping on its toes, much less a "communist China".

I think it's fair to say that China and America are both suspicious of one another. That is also the reason why American millitary radar has shifted its focus from Europe to Asia-Pacific in recent years, now that the other superpower (read it USSR) has been dislodged from the pedestral.

IF wrote "America wants a strong China. Any instability in China will greatly affect the whole world".

Yes, I agree with your statement but only partly. What America essentially wants is a China that is strong enough to function but not strong enough to challenge America's superemacy, because, like you said, an instable/chaotic China is a threat to peace and prosperity for Asia-Pacific and therefore the world at large. You see, there is a demarcation.

As far as the issue of Taiwan goes, America is not very keen about the idea of Taiwan uniting with the mainland china. It wants the staus quo to remain (and hence its ambiguous stance), because it has been a lucrative bargaining chip for the US when dealing with China. America can always play up the two sides to its advantage.

As far as Powell's comments are concerned, you know, at the start of Bush's presidency he promised to do 'whatever it takes' to defend Taiwan should a war break between the two sides, which I think has now come to haunt the Bush administration, because there is a sense that pro-independent forces in Taiwan are gaining upper hand and are getting ever more bolder as indicated by Chen's intention to hold referendum etc. Recently, the prime-minister of Sigapore said he was alarmed by pro-independent forces' growing influence in Taiwan. He said there was a real chance of a war breaking out and that should that happen Singapore would not take sides and most Asian countries would stay neutral as well. The reality seems to have sunk in now, so basically Powell is trying put a damper on that over-enthusiastic pro-indepent forces in Taiwan. Also, Singapore and Australia, considered among America's closest allies in Asia, are forever imploring Washington to tread carefully when dealing with China.

Would the US ever go to war with China over Taiwan? My guess is only as good as yours.
I think a number of factors would contribute as to whether or not America would in for a millitary showdown with China. I am sure both US and China have very little apetite for a war that will benefit neither. The stakes are unbelievely high(i can's stress this enough) for both the parties. However, the chances of war between US and China over Taiwan would grow slimmer in the years ahead.

My apologies for this delay in replying. K garney, School and other commitments.

Great inputs there by Lokman. But if you read carefully, we both are saying the same thing, i.e, America does not want any change in the status quo. I believe that it is only for the short term. America will soon change its policy vis-a-vis Taiwan/China. You seem to imply that, it won't do that. Given the fact that we are just outside observers, we can just guess.

Re: Singapore and Australia pressuring America to tread carefully with China, I don't think its the case. I think, these days, Asutralia and Singapore are tilting more towards China. For Australians, its the trade factor. If I may suggest, there was an excellent piece on Sino-Asutralian-Asian relations on this July's New York Times' Magazine. As far as Singapore is concerned, it is true that Singapore was afraid of Chinese communism in the 60's, according to Lee Kuan Yew's Memoir, From Third World to First: The Singapore Story. However, things have changed now. The Chinese majority in Singapore now takes pride in its Chinese heritage, which was rarely the case in the 60s. Its all because of China's impressive growth of the last 30 years. Kishore Muhabani, Singapore's ambassador to the UN is very supportive of China in his book Can Asians Think? Singapore, with its majority Chinese population cannot afford to be on China's bad side, especially when China is leading the Asian economy and there's a surge of Chinese-Nationalism among the ethnic Chinese populations from The Phillippinnes (Sp?) to Malaysia.

Taiwan is a very complex problem. Its not just an issue between China-Taiwan, its a major issue between China-Japan-America relations. When you analyze China-America relations, you have to think of the Japan factor. I am quite certain that if Japan does not go ahead with its military program, then things will change in the Asia-Pacific region.

Regarding pisces questions, my answer is, things will remain the way they are now for a while. It will start to change when there's no suspicion regarding Japan's military program in China, and Japan starts coopearting with China . As for the tentative date for reunion, I can't say anything. Could be anywehere from 5-50 years. Fisrt, they have to sit down and talk on the terms and conditions, then set a date, like China and the UK did in 1984 regarding the HK handover.