Hey U all there! What do u think about The People Republic of China becoming superpower later in this century? What would be the likely changes in the dynamics of world politics and security in such a changed scenario? Could you make any hypothetical assumption of such transformation? What would be the fate of the US glory? Is this transformation would be easily achieved? Can you imagine, US becoming something like The Great Britain now stands (US becoming unconditional supporter/ally)? What would be the overall prosperity of Asians? What would be the role of Nepal? Nepal would be able to formulate its policies as a sovereign and independent country? What would be the challenges and prospects of Nepal by then?

Nut

alright everyone involved in this threaed, let's buy ourselves some beer! 86 posts and now gaali-galauzz, screaming, labels, slurs.. we deserve it for keeping it clean and for our long postings! :-)

Very true, ISO...it is immensely gratifying to indulge in discussions free of gaalis and slurs and condescending remarks. Cheers to everyone involved in this thread for a civilized discussions, even though we may disagree a lot of times. Now, ISO wants some beer (ki A LOT??)...I am willing to pull the tab if everyone's willing to come over! Seriously, if any of you live in or around NYC, and would like to talk politics (global or Nepali) over some madak padaarthas...just shoot me an email!

We must all remember that value of an opinion, regardless of who it comes from, is priceless. Some opinions may be uninformed, others well-informed, and yet others may be ill-informed; however, each one of them carry an EQUAL value with regards to it's contribution to the discussions. Unless, of course, one becomes condescending and/or starts to use gaali-galough as tools of his/her arguments.

Well, ISO and others...we have discussed much at length about China's role in future global politics, and at times we seemd to divulge into the discussions about other states as well. I think I will start a new thread titled "Global Issues" where anyone interested can talk about anything related to international affairs.

For now, sticking with China...

ISO, I think I can surmise our debate as the following:

1.a. I say militarism has been playing a declining role in international affairs, and will continue to do so until one day economy will take over as the key to formation of alliances and the ability to influence.

1.b. You disagree and insist that militarism will contonue to play equal, if not more, role as economy in global politics.

2.a. Therefore, regardless of how poor China's military may be, it will rise as a superpower within our lifetime because of it's immensely influential economy.

2.b. You insist that China's backwardness on military affairs vis-a-vis US and Russia will prevent it from being throned as the superpower.

One bonus comment for myself ;): I suspect that EVEN IF military will still play a very important role to the effect that poor military will be a significant obstacle to a nation's aspirations of becoming a superpower, with a sound and healthy economy, it shouldn't be difficult for China to rapidly modernize it's army.

On that disagreable but friendly note, I suppose we can agree to disagree and drink more. (I only know Tsin Tao among Chinese beers!) Only time shall tell which one of us will be proven correct.

All the rest, in the new thread! :D

Well said Poonte bro,

We can disagree without being personal. When we are discussing IR, we all have our own framework of analysis. Some like the libera perspectivel, some like the Realist perspective, and there are people who base their analysis on the Marxist perspective. I personally see a strong security/defense as the most telling feature of a superpower. But I have to admit, I am truly amazed and impressed by the ability of some of the posters.( I knew you were a pro, so was expecting your views on this.) Of course there are disagreements, and there will be in the future.

Now waiting for your threat .. oops THREAD on global issues.

Alright guys, lert's save our energy to discuss in the next thread. Let's give our brains some rest. Qing Dao, Bud, Miller, Guiness, Harp, Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, Samuel Adams, Beck, Heiniken, Corona, Carlseberg, Amstel.. or microbrews.. just grab a can/bottle/glass/pitcher of whichever you prefer..All work and no play is no life at all ! (A Jose Cuevro commercial) :-)

china being superpower!!!!!!!

yes, i think so, it is growing bigger and stronger day by day in both economic and military aspects. and guys china is not only relying in US for its exports , it is also relying on EUROPE. so as long as there is europe in this world, china is not going to loose its power, eventhough it will have conflicts with US

NOW THINK FOR ONCE THIS POINTS CAREFULLY:
IF THERE WILL B NO EUROPE OR IF EUROPEANS STOP IMPORTING GOODS FRM US THEN WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE ECONOMY OF US

AND THE FUNNY THING IS
IF SAUDIS PULL BACK THERE MONEY FRM US THEN HEHEHEHAHAHAHA U KNOW WHAT US ECONOMY DEPENDS ON SAUDIS MONEY TOO COZ 6-7% OF US ECONOMY BELONGS TO SAUDIS MONEY IN US BANKS

so only if europe will leave its hands with Us then US will b no super power, but this US ko step brother Uk is playing villain part na, coz its not accepting euro bcoz it will affect US economy but guys dont worry coz its making Uk's economy weaker so now UK is also thinking to leave US and join europe

i look forward to that day when US will fall down so that many innocent people all around the world wont die of this selfish americans WAR FOR OIL motive. and if u still think US is great then go and watch the movie CONFIDENTIAL "FARHENHEIT 9/11"

Pisces,

Here's a news item that you might be interested in.

China, US discuss setting up defense hotline

By Xiong Zhengyan

BEIJING, Feb. 1 (Xinhuanet) -- Chinese Defense Ministry and its US counterpart rounded off their first special policy dialogue here Tuesday with both voicing their satisfactions, a sign of warming ties between two militaries of the two countries.
The two-day closed-door talk covered a wide range of issues, including the Taiwan issue, maritime military security and exchange programs in 2005, said a Chinese military spokesman Tu Qiming, who is in charge of the American and Oceanian affairs in the Foreign Affairs Office (FAO) under the Chinese Defense Ministry.

The two sides had "a very clear and direct exchange," said Deputy Under Secretary of US Defense Ministry Richard Lawless, who was leading the US side in this security dialogue.

We are "pleasantly surprised and pleased" with many issues being discussed and we know we are "successful in some areas," said Lawless, who is responsible for the Asia Pacific region in the US defense ministry.

The Chinese side is satisfied with the dialogue, as the meeting was conducted in a "candid, cooperative and constructive" atmosphere and the result is "fruitful," Tu gave a media briefing,after Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Xiong Guangkai held a talk with Lawless Tuesday morning.

The US officials here are "very representative, which demonstrates our desire to have a very good exchange," Lawless told Xiong, adding the United States would like to push forward the military exchanges at various levels.

Noting the Taiwan issue remains "the biggest factor" affecting China-US relations, Xiong said China hopes the United States will honor its commitment to adhering to the one-China policy, observing the three Sino-US joint communiques and opposing "Taiwan independence".

Lawless said the United States "hopes the Taiwan issue can be peacefully resolved."

According to Tu's briefing Monday, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld expressed the interest to visit China this year, but the exact date was still under discussion.

"Both sides agreed to promote their military ties through more pragmatic exchanges," Tu said.

This year will see exchanges of top military officials, professional staffs and military institutions between the two militaries, Tu said.

Citing the on-going communication between the two ministries as"smooth," Tu said installing a hotline between the two ministries is under discussion.

Tu also said the two sides did not touch upon the European Union's arms embargo against China or nuclear issues on the KoreanPeninsula.

Last week, a US delegation headed by former US Defense Secretary William Perry came to east China's Shanghai for a seminar on Sino-US security.

Perry was also hosted by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan. Enditem

newsweek's latest issue on China. HIGHLY RECCOMMENDED, especially Zakaria's article.

also listen to the radio program which can be downloaded from the Newsweek site.

all the more awesome..

China is half the way there already..they tested their economic strenght the other day and pulled down their currency value..one sec later the dollar dipped in Nasdaq..all ties are linked with import exports ..manufacturing of china..

Now uS's econmony alos depends on india..for all employement..the skilled laboroers are more there..

as for gas prices dipping down most consumers are looking at prius or hybrids from where else but Japan...

the stronger these three tigers get the better it is for countries like us...

Japan is loaning a bunch of money to Nepal..we should think loan not as a debt but as a leverage..money grows money..if you have the input there wud be an output..MOst european countries are vying thus for nepal inorder to get triple benefits from india, china and japan, as nepal would be low-risk low-investment projects...

US trying to make Nepal as an army base camp ..bush wants to start a ww4 from there..

now so many countries have interest in us..it is therefore with us the power to manipulate their interest for our benfits..people like girija and GYAN bahadur have minute brains that they only think about their minute selfish gains..

IT is time for us to understand and lead..nepalese people to the foregraound..that we encourage stronghold or epicentre of all trades in ASIA..doing so will able to dimish debt, poverty and of course GYANE CHOR/GIRIJA can also have a slice of the cake...EQUALLY..like everyone else..

I'll get more detail in pointing out strategies on How to make Nepal richer and wiser in TEN YEARS!!..if anyboy is with me please feel free to add in suggestion and i'll pull up a new thread....

EDUCATION/ERRORS/experience come handy sometimes...

your pupil
hp

In five years china will out wit US and become the number one trade partner with South American nations which would directly be a threat for US capability to mount economic hegemony (CHINA SYNDROME). South American nations are known for having huge copper, steel and other minerals, natural gas and petroleum resources. China recently signed a free trade treaty with Chili and other South American nations and become only second country to do so. Days are not far way for China to become super power (at least economic superpower and this would be a great leap towards becoming robust superpowers in decades to come)

Nut

spelling correction:
far away=distant

any China expert and specialists in here? would like to hear their view.

there is no doubt that in sheer size, the chinese economy is probably going to be at least as big as the US economy in the next 10-15 years. however, this does not make it into a economic superpower. to being with, on last count, china has almost one billion more people than the US. so any kind of economic superpower celebrity status is a long way off china and the chinese people. i think the further away it is, the more risk there is that things might go wrong for the chinese. i mean comeon, there is no way they can sustain 9% growth rates for the next 6-7 years on a row. that just won't happen.

also, there is a tendency to apply a monolithic approach when it comes to china. well the communist party does not help, but china really is not as heterogeneous as sometimes it is made out to be in the US media. there is vast inequality within the chinese economy and this is something that has been giving the chinese economists quite a bit of headache.

finally, the question is not only will china become a superpower but also will it want to become one? at least in the sense we define superpower right now. sure it is a little touchy when it comes to taiwan and japan. but these are old issues and very hard to let go because of all the sentimentality involved. on all other fronts, the 'leadership model' adopted by the chinese seems drastically different from that of the US. just look at the 'observer' status it maintains in asean for example. or the response to the coup - 'internal affairs' - very typically chinese, and not surprising at all. they almost seem to be at pains in a lot of different occassions to establish their modesty at every possible juncture. of course just the sheer scale of things it needs to achieve, economically or otherwise, is mind-boggling to anyone. and the chinese seem to be acutely aware of that. in other words, their modus operandi is strikingly different from the all-meddling, all-pressure, all-preachy model of the americans. personally, i am starting to think that race has something to do with this for that is for another day.

btw, is dollar devaluation now all but inevitable? funny how things come back to haunt people. i remember the summer of 2003, washington was just all agog with the diagnosis that a weak yuan is the ruin of US economy. to me it just seemed like a vain attempt to recapture the glory days, something that is not going to happen unless they want the old days with all the bells and whistles - i mean come on now, US consumption has increased because of cheap china. but now that everyone knows the chinese hold huge dollar reserves, any indication from beijing of revaluation will induce the decline of dollar vis-a-vis every other major currency. will this prompt a dollar meltdown? perhaps not, but will it erode the US economy, for sure yeah. how much? well, we'll just have to wait and see, i guess. unless we have some china expert in here to tell us better.

errata:

to being with = to begin with
china is not heterogeneous = china is not homogeneous

here's the link for Newsweek article on China :

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7693580/site/newsweek/

"finally, the question is not only will china become a superpower but also will it want to become one? at least in the sense we define superpower right now. sure it is a little touchy when it ...almost seem to be at pains in a lot of different occassions to establish their modesty at ...., all-preachy model of the americans. personally, i am starting to think that race has something to do with this for that is for another day. "

Tired,

Good points. I agree with you for the most part but there are some minor disagreements. I will post my reply soon. Its break here, so enough time to browse and post messages in Sajha..


Hushhappy,

"US trying to make Nepal as an army base camp ..bush wants to start a ww4 from there"
- When was the World War III? :-)

I think Nepal would be the worst choice to start World War IV.

Briliant Article by Mr. Fareed Zakaria ... Thanx for sharing -- ISO..

Ya i can figure out that easily...... even in this highly developed country, when i buy daily items and look at back...i can see at most of the items "Made in China"

मेरो विचारमा चिन निकट भबिष्?यमा यौटा महत्?वपुणै आथिक शत्ती बन्?नेछ तर महत्?वपुणै सामरिक शत्ति बन्?न चिनलाई कम्?तीमा पनि ५०। १०० बष लाग्?छ। ४ वटा आणबिक राष्?टृ र असजीलो छिमेकी जापानको बिचमा रहेको चिनलाई सामरीक शत्तिकेन्?द्र वन्?न निकै
गाह्रो छ ।

nepali type garna kasto gaaro yaar..

आटिकल पढ्न गाको, छेवैमा साह्रै राम्रो नितम्भको तस्बीर रैछ, ध्यानै दिन सकिएन बा: ।

so iso? whachoo say?

Definitely the article by Fareed has a good logic. The way of doing business in US has been changed now because of China... China and even India's are gaining those advantages. But Nepal haven't done anything far. There was a hope when Pasmina Industry was in boom.
But i think if Nepal will even try to export outfit cloth products to US and europe then there will be still good hope for Nepalese economy because after India, other south asian countries like bangladesh and srilanka has already entered in the US markets then why Nepal can't do that......


There is one article i found that on INC. magazine, this will also tell about the reality of world business now.
- http://www.inc.com/magazine/20050301/china.html

Tired,

I say you are quite right. China has a long way to go to become a military and economic superpower like the US. Also will the external developments allow China to become a superpower? Its very hard to say anthing as of today.

Japan is becoming increasingly nationalist and N. Korea is developing new weapons every month (or at least they claim that's what they are doing). So the Chinese are in a very difficult situation. If thi ngs do not improve, I think it will be hard for China to even emerge as an economic superpower because most of the developmnet money will have to be spent on securing it's borders.